451 Horse Run Rd · Bolivar, NY 14754

$74,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1990 9.74 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Single wide mobile home has 980 sq. ft. , 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, and a large living room-kitchen area.  Main source of heat is a wood stove, but there is natural gas hook up at the road.  1,500 gallon septic tank, and there is a spring for water.  Large barn can be used as a workshop, storage, or for animals.  Cabin has electric but the installation needs to be completed.  It would be perfect for family or friends to have their own living space while visiting.  Large spring-fed pond has a few different species of fish including Koi Fish. The 9.7 acres is mostly open which can be used for tillable land for a small farm, or pastureland for cattle.   There

Key facts

• 9.74 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1990

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $257 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($982 rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#644 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Bolivar-Richburg Central School District (rural): math 50% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #395 of 590 in NY (top 67%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bolivar-Richburg Elementary School (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 346 students, 57% FRL); Bolivar-Richburg Junior-Senior High School (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,007 of 1,100 statewide, top 93%, 341 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 87 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($518 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (9.8% local appreciation)).
• Allegany County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $73,776 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.70%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.78% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.67×
• Total profit: $56,019
• Equity at exit: $66,254

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.24×
• Total profit: $151,834
• Equity at exit: $141,599

Cash invested: $20,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14754

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $982 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,135/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $257

Break-even live

Break-even rent $656

Max offer price $74,900

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $299	-5% $278	+0% $257	+5% $236	+10% $214
Rent	-10% $179	-5% $218	+0% $257	+5% $296	+10% $334
Rate	-1.0pp $295	-0.5pp $276	base $257	+0.5pp $237	+1.0pp $218

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,725
• Closing costs: $2,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2024-01-12
   status Pending
2. 2023-04-15
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show
3. 2023-03-21
   listed $74,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,135 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,200 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: +$66/yr (+$5/mo · 5.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,778
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,196
• − Property taxes: −$1,135
• − Insurance: −$374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$942
• − Management: −$942
• − Depreciation: −$2,179
• Taxable income: $2,010
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$482
• After-tax cash flow: $2,600/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bolivar-Richburg Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600012
• Math proficiency: 50% ▲ 9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $40,153
• Composite: 42.26/100
• National rank: #3277
• State rank: #395 of 590 in NY

Livability — Bolivar

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #644
• US rank: #12061

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 633

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,362 people
• By 2030: 43,078 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 38,031 · -16.2%
• By 2050: 33,634 · -25.9%
• By 2075: 25,285 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 18,902 · -58.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Slovak 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 28.4% · R 71.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: -21.7pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+38.9 2016: R+42.3 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.78%
• Current HPI: 303.6191
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2024-01-12 Pending — CNYIS
• 2023-04-15 Pending — CNYIS
• 2023-03-21 Listed $74,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,135 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.