3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,054 sqft ·
Built 2008
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 3 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,265/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,253
Tax + insurance
−$382
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$476
Net cashflow
$154/mo
Annual
$1,845/yr
Cap rate
7.07%
Cash-on-cash
2.76%
DSCR
1.12
1% rule
0.95%
Cash to close
$66,920
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $154 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (5.2% below list).
Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $227k (5.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Otis A. Mason Elementary School (math 76% / reading 60%, grade B+, #425 of 2,144 statewide, top 20%, 719 students, 45% FRL); R J Murray Middle School (math 54% / reading 54%, grade B-, #196 of 571 statewide, top 36%, 695 students, 50% FRL); St. Augustine High School (math 54% / reading 62%, grade C, #120 of 667 statewide, top 18%, 1,784 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 20% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 60% at this address vs 74% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the St. Johns average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 636 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $172k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.1% in St. Augustine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-B28SR2B8JYCH9Y
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29