5118 E Ashlan Ave #102

Fresno, CA 93727

$197,500D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 977 sqft · Built 1973 · SingleFamily · Active · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,040/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,036
• Tax + insurance: −$329
• HOA: −$400
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $-153/mo
• Annual: $-1,839/yr
• Cap rate: 5.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.33%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $55,300

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $198k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-153 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (11.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $198k).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $175k (11.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#469 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Fresno Unified (urban): math 18% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #327 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Viking Elementary (712 students, 91% FRL); Ahwahnee Middle (639 students, 86% FRL); Herbert Hoover High (math 14% / reading 39%, grade F, #804 of 1,170 statewide, top 69%, 2,005 students, 81% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 327 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.7% in Fresno — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.