16234 Bergara Bend Dr

New Caney, TX 77357

$196,590C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,461 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,835/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,031
• Tax + insurance: −$328
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $91/mo
• Annual: $1,092/yr
• Cap rate: 6.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.98%
• DSCR: 1.09
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $55,045

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $197k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $91 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (6.7% below list).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $183k (6.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Shadow Forest El (math 52% / reading 61%, grade C+, #559 of 4,322 statewide, top 13%, 626 students, 17% FRL); Riverwood Middle (math 77% / reading 63%, grade A, #58 of 1,662 statewide, top 4%, 1,135 students, 12% FRL); Kingwood H S (math 60% / reading 71%, grade B, #193 of 1,632 statewide, top 12%, 2,898 students, 16% FRL) — zoned schools average 15% FRL vs 32% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 41% district-wide (+23 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Humble ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1516 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.7% in New Caney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.