16234 Bergara Bend Dr

New Caney, TX 77357

$196,590C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,461 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,995/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,031
• Tax + insurance: −$328
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $218/mo
• Annual: $2,612/yr
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.75%
• DSCR: 1.21
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $55,045

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $197k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $218 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $197k).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $194k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Shadow Forest El (math 52% / reading 61%, grade C+, #559 of 4,322 statewide, top 13%, 626 students, 17% FRL); Riverwood Middle (math 77% / reading 63%, grade A, #58 of 1,662 statewide, top 4%, 1,135 students, 12% FRL); Humble H S (math 15% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,348 of 1,632 statewide, top 83%, 2,867 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools at 35% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1238 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.5% in New Caney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.