16234 Bergara Bend Dr · New Caney, TX 77357

$196,590

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,461 sqft · SingleFamily · 24 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $135/sqft · 28% below area Est $272k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to an outdoor space. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Outdoor space

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• PRIVATE LOCATION
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $197k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $218 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $197k).
• Recommended offer: $194k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.5% in New Caney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Shadow Forest El (math 52% / reading 61%, grade C+, #559 of 4,322 statewide, top 13%, 626 students, 17% FRL); Riverwood Middle (math 77% / reading 63%, grade A, #58 of 1,662 statewide, top 4%, 1,135 students, 12% FRL); Humble H S (math 15% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,348 of 1,632 statewide, top 83%, 2,867 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools at 35% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1238 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,641 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.75%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $271,990
• List price: $196,590
• Delta: -27.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31512 Pianella Ln	0.91mi	3/2.0	1,522 (+4%)	3mo	$170,990	$112	55
31511 San Floro Dr	1.03mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+10%)	0mo	$237,990	$149	49
31505 Olivella Dr	0.98mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-11%)	0mo	$199,990	$154	47
31504 Olivella Dr	1.00mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-11%)	3mo	$249,990	$192	44
31516 Pianella Ln	0.91mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-11%)	4mo	$251,990	$194	43
31209 Piccolo Fiore Ln	0.79mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+13%)	0mo	$201,990	$122	37
353 Wild Oak Dr	1.10mi	3/2.0	1,726 (+18%)	4mo	$324,000	$188	37
31507 Pianella Ln	0.90mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,720 (+18%)	1mo	$208,440	$121	34
31506 Olivella Dr	1.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,720 (+18%)	2mo	$170,990	$99	33
31506 Casamari Dr	0.93mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,720 (+18%)	4mo	$269,990	$157	32
31514 Casamari Dr	0.93mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,720 (+18%)	4mo	$279,990	$163	32
708 Zuppino Ln	0.88mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,720 (+18%)	5mo	$268,990	$156	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-23,411
• Equity at exit: $29,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-23,558
• Equity at exit: $16,998

Cash invested: $55,045 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 23 active · 17 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.7 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $182,991 ($123/sqft)
• Median days on market: 18 d
• This list price: 74% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +50.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 1238
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,995 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,031
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$246 /mo · $2,949/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $218

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,720

Max offer price $196,590

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $354	-5% $286	+0% $218	+5% $150	+10% $82
Rent	-10% $60	-5% $139	+0% $218	+5% $296	+10% $375
Rate	-1.0pp $317	-0.5pp $268	base $218	+0.5pp $167	+1.0pp $115

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,148
• Closing costs: $5,898
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
934 Pertuso Ln Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,699	$1.25	15d	1	1.23mi
31416 Pratola Serra Cir Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,599	$1.09	23d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-12
   price $196,590 415-char remark
2. 2026-05-03
   price $199,990 415-char remark
3. 2026-05-02
   listed $240,990 Active 415-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,943
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,012
• − Property taxes: −$2,949
• − Insurance: −$983
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,915
• − Management: −$1,915
• − Depreciation: −$5,719
• Taxable loss: −$550
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$132
• After-tax cash flow: $2,744/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,305–$21,915 screening

This single-level home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. A fresh coat of paint and cleaning of gutters would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace or clean gutters — Improves drainage and prevents water damage ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Shadow Forest El C+ TX #559/4,322 Nat'l #9,263/41,679 Middle Riverwood Middle A TX #58/1,662 Nat'l #819/14,009 High Humble H S F TX #1,348/1,632 Nat'l #13,542/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Caney

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 37,592
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B