1417 7th Ave

Neptune City, NJ 07753

$535,000C-

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,010 sqft · Built 1942 · SingleFamily · Pending · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,866/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,806
• Tax + insurance: −$1,041
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,232
• Net cashflow: $787/mo
• Annual: $9,446/yr
• Cap rate: 8.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.31%
• DSCR: 1.28
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $149,800

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $535k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $787 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $535k).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#332 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-, health & safety A-; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, commute F.
• Neptune Township School District (suburban): math 12% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #404 of 472 in NJ (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 267 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,840 units permitted in Monmouth County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monmouth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $425k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 1.4% in Neptune City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,866/mo this rent would consume 74% of the median local household income ($96k/yr) (locally 1263% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.