1417 7th Ave · Neptune City, NJ 07753

$535,000

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,010 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1942 9,147 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming 6Bed/2Bath duplex, where potential and personality collide! This is your golden ticket to turning dreams into dollars-an income-generating gem just waiting for your magic touch. Boasting 3 spacious bedrooms +a full bath in EACH unit, you can easily accommodate your future tenants (or, you know, the in-laws on a short stay. .. no pressure!). The first level is already sporting a newer roof, and even though the interior needs a little TLC, think of the fun you'll have restoring those classic features like the stunning 9-foot ceilings and original hardwood floors! And don't forget about the wood-stove with a brick hearth-it's not functional right now, but with a little

Key facts

• Newer roof
• 9 foot ceilings
• Huge fenced yard

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• 9 FOOT CEILINGS
• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• WOOD STOVE WITH BRICK HEARTH
• HUGE FENCED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $535k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $787 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $535k).
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 1.4% in Neptune City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#332 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-, health & safety A-; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, commute F.
• Neptune Township School District (suburban): math 12% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #404 of 472 in NJ (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 267 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,840 units permitted in Monmouth County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,866/mo this rent would consume 74% of the median local household income ($96k/yr) (locally 1263% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monmouth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $425k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $535,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.31%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,165,800
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
606 Mccabe Ave	0.63mi	5/4.5 (-1)	2,085 (+4%)	14mo	$1,210,000	$580	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.58% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-26,908
• Equity at exit: $79,770

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $81,997
• Equity at exit: $46,257

Cash invested: $149,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07753

• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 267
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,866 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,806
• Tax from tax record: −$818 /mo · $9,820/yr
• Insurance: −$223
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,232
• Net cashflow: $787

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,869

Max offer price $535,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $133,750
• Closing costs: $16,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
513 Ocean Park Ave Bradley Beach, NJ	5.0	4.0	2944	$6,000	$2.04	1d	1	0.69mi
316 Park Place Ave Bradley Beach, NJ	5.0	3.0	1797	$5,500	$3.06	1d	1	0.88mi
148 Heck Ave Ocean Grove, NJ	5.0	3.5	1946	$2,500	$1.28	43d	1	0.90mi
96 Cookman Ave Ocean Grove, NJ	5.0	3.0	1982	$3,500	$1.77	43d	1	0.93mi
214 Brinley Ave Bradley Beach, NJ	5.0	3.5	1752	$5,500	$3.14	1d	1	0.97mi
69 Franklin Ave Unit 1 Ocean Grove, NJ	5.0	2.0	2096	$4,700	$2.24	43d	1	0.99mi
333 Woodland Ave Avon by the Sea, NJ	5.0	2.5	2531	$9,000	$3.56	1d	1	1.04mi
204 4th Ave Bradley Beach, NJ	7.0	2.0	2224	$4,200	$1.89	24d	1	1.04mi
1219 Washington Ave Asbury Park, NJ	6.0	2.0	1510	$3,700	$2.45	4d	1	1.06mi
75 Webb Ave Unit FULL Ocean Grove, NJ	5.0	3.0	2084	$5,350	$2.57	43d	1	1.06mi
110 Mount Tabor Way Unit C Ocean Grove, NJ	5.0	2.0	2690	$3,000	$1.12	24d	1	1.07mi
62 Webb Ave Ocean Grove, NJ	5.0	2.5	2107	$25,000	$11.87	1d	1	1.09mi
512 Lincoln Ave Avon by the Sea, NJ	5.0	3.5	2958	$10,000	$3.38	44d	1	1.10mi
83 Main Ave Ocean Grove, NJ	5.0	2.5	1981	$3,400	$1.72	43d	1	1.11mi
311 Garfield Ave Avon by the Sea, NJ	5.0	2.0	1508	$21,000	$13.93	43d	1	1.19mi
16 Abbott Ave Ocean Grove, NJ	5.0	3.5	2817	$5,600	$1.99	1d	1	1.21mi
26 Heck Ave Ocean Grove, NJ	5.0	2.5	1856	$5,900	$3.18	1d	1	1.23mi
44 Ocean Pathway Ocean Grove, NJ	6.0	3.5	2425	$7,000	$2.89	4d	1	1.29mi
15 Pitman Ave Ocean Grove, NJ	5.0	3.0	2184	$7,500	$3.43	43d	1	1.34mi
11 Pitman Ave Ocean Grove, NJ	7.0	4.5	2974	$9,700	$3.26	19d	1	1.35mi
9 Pitman Ave Ocean Grove, NJ	6.0	3.5	2221	$7,500	$3.38	17d	1	1.36mi
12 Surf Ave Ocean Grove, NJ	5.0	2.5	1450	$7,500	$5.17	1d	1	1.43mi
305 Ocean Ave Avon by the Sea, NJ	5.0	3.0	2064	$10,000	$4.84	11d	1	1.44mi
3 Bath Ave Ocean Grove, NJ	5.0	2.5	2154	$5,500	$2.55	43d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2025-12-19
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-08
   listed $535,000 Active
3. 2004-09-13
   soldstatus $425,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,820 · $818/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,571 · $964/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,751/yr (+$146/mo · 17.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $70,390
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,968
• − Property taxes: −$9,820
• − Insurance: −$2,675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,631
• − Management: −$5,631
• − Depreciation: −$15,564
• Taxable income: $1,100
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$264
• After-tax cash flow: $9,182/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Neptune Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3411160
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $63,016
• Composite: 21.14/100
• National rank: #8432
• State rank: #404 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Neptune City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #332
• US rank: #10607

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monmouth County · 505,557 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 37,297
• Household income: $95,712
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1263.0

Population outlook (Monmouth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 620,308 people
• By 2030: 612,309 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 587,297 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 551,342 · -11.1%
• By 2075: 472,934 · -23.8%
• By 2100: 381,534 · -38.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 26% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 3% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Guatemala, South Korea
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 11% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Monmouth

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.4% · R 54.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -3.7pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: R+2.8 2016: R+9.5 2012: R+5.5 2008: R+3.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -432.73%
• Current HPI: 391.3411
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.58%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+25.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-19 Pending — MOMLS
• 2025-12-08 Listed $535,000 MOMLS
• 2004-09-13 Sold (Public Records) $425,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,820 · +12.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.