1203 Ganton Ln

Timberwood Park, TX 78260

$374,900D-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,036 sqft · Built 2006 · SingleFamily · Pending · 152 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,876/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,966
• Tax + insurance: −$429
• HOA: −$132
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$604
• Net cashflow: $-255/mo
• Annual: $-3,066/yr
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.92%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $104,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $375k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-255 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $330k (12.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $288k (23.3% below list).
• It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $288k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#607 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D+, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 388 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.8% in Timberwood Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.