68 Chervil Cmn

Lake Jackson, TX 77566

$125,000B-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,558 sqft · Built 1976 · Townhouse · Active · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,748/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$313
• HOA: −$173
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $239/mo
• Annual: $2,868/yr
• Cap rate: 8.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.19%
• DSCR: 1.36
• 1% rule: 1.40%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $239 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#76 in TX, #2,709 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Brazosport ISD (suburban): math 43% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #305 of 826 in TX (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rasco Middle (math 45% / reading 50%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 731 students, 58% FRL); Brazoswood H S (math 38% / reading 44%, grade F, #774 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 2,398 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 224 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 78% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.8% in Lake Jackson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.