68 Chervil Cmn · Lake Jackson, TX 77566

$125,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,558 sqft · Townhouse public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1976 2,940 sqft lot Est $156k · 20% under $173/mo HOA · 10% of rent ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Bright, spacious, and full of potential, this remodel-ready home offers some updated finishes, expansive living areas, and a seamless indoor-outdoor connection through large glass doors overlooking a private patio on the first floor, and a private balcony on the 2nd floor master bedroom! While some cosmetic repairs are required and personal touches could make it truly shine, major items have already been addressed, including a new roof installed in May 2026. The foundation has been professionally inspected by D-Square also in May 2026, with no foundation repairs recommended. Townhomes in this area are selling quickly and inventory remains limited so schedule your private showing today befor

Key facts

• Updated finishes
• Private balcony
• Private patio

Tags

• REMODEL READY HOME
• UPDATED FINISHES
• INDOOR OUTDOOR CONNECTION
• PRIVATE PATIO
• PRIVATE BALCONY
• NEW ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Full ownership
• HOA & community: Briarwood HOA; Monthly association fee ($173) covering common areas, grounds maintenance, recreation facilities and trash; Community pool / association pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Garage with garage door opener; Additional paved parking (unassigned)
• Security: Owned security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces east; Two stories; Full ownership
• Construction: Built in 1976; Brick, cement siding, and wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Balcony; Deck; Patio; Storage; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven and electric range; Free‑standing range; Disposal; Microwave; Oven; Refrigerator; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first level (including primary bedroom)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning; Has heating and cooling
• Interior features: Wet bar; Brick accent walls; Dual sinks; High ceilings; Primary bedroom with private bath; Pantry; Tub/shower combo; Vaulted ceilings; Window treatments; Ceiling fans

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $239 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.8% in Lake Jackson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#76 in TX, #2,709 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Brazosport ISD (suburban): math 43% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #305 of 826 in TX (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rasco Middle (math 45% / reading 50%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 731 students, 58% FRL); Brazoswood H S (math 38% / reading 44%, grade F, #774 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 2,398 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 224 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 78% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.19%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $155,800
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
56 Caraway Cmn	0.04mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,498 (-4%)	14mo	$167,500	$112	71
51 Chervil Cmn	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,736 (+11%)	17mo	$125,000	$72	65
51 Caraway Cmn	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,347 (-14%)	23mo	$134,500	$100	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-9,957
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-8,061
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77566

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 224
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,748 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$261 /mo · $3,132/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$173
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $239

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,445

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
460 TX-332 Lake Jackson, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	836	$1,203	$1.44	3d	11	0.32mi
460 TX-332 Lake Jackson, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	836	$1,453	$1.74	43d	17	0.32mi
214 Oleander St Lake Jackson, TX	3.0	2.0	1423	$2,000	$1.41	43d	1	0.42mi
100 Cactus St Lake Jackson, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,895	$1.99	1d	21	0.61mi
106 Cactus St Lake Jackson, TX	2.0	2.0	1104	$1,496	$1.36	43d	1	0.62mi
301 Cypress St Lake Jackson, TX	3.0	2.5	1878	$2,000	$1.06	43d	1	0.73mi
133 Plantation Dr W Lake Jackson, TX	2.0	2.0	1070	$1,149	$1.07	43d	1	0.80mi
523 Wisteria St Lake Jackson, TX	3.0	1.5	1508	$1,775	$1.18	43d	1	1.24mi
138 Oyster Creek Dr Lake Jackson, TX	3.0	2.0	1175	$1,525	$1.30	43d	1	1.28mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $173 · $2,076/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-15
   listed $125,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,132 · $261/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,132 · $261/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 54% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,971
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$3,132
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,678
• − Management: −$1,678
• − HOA: −$2,076
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $1,145
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$275
• After-tax cash flow: $2,593/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brazosport ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811190
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,024
• Composite: 36.84/100
• National rank: #4557
• State rank: #305 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lake Jackson

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #2709

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Jackson, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 30,246
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,246
• Household income: $92,586
• Rent vs Own: 35.4% rent · 64.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1126.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 16% Black 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Arabic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.81%
• Current HPI: 251.8234
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.11%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-24.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2018-03-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2018-02-26 Listed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2000-05-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,132 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.