176 Mariner Ln

Rotonda, FL 33947

$447,900F

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,830 sqft · Built 2004 · SingleFamily · Active · 60 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,173/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,349
• Tax + insurance: −$463
• HOA: −$15
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$666
• Net cashflow: $-321/mo
• Annual: $-3,849/yr
• Cap rate: 5.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.07%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $125,412

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $448k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-321 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $391k (12.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $317k (29.2% below list).
• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($434k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $317k (29.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#548 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A-, cost of living B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Charlotte (suburban): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #22 of 73 in FL (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 863 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,585 units permitted in Charlotte County in 2024 (703 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Charlotte County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $220k; list at $448k implies a 104% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.1% in Rotonda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,173/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($80k/yr) (locally 91% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?