176 Mariner Ln · Rotonda, FL 33947

$447,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,830 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 2004 10,000 sqft lot Est $395k · 13% over $15/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• ARV discount +1.5/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lovely 3/3/2 home with heated pool. Oversized lanai over looks freshwater canal. Tastefully furnished and waiting your arrival.

Key facts

• New pool cage
• Updated pool
• Hurricane shutters

Tags

• UPDATED POOL
• NEW POOL CAGE
• HURRICANE SHUTTERS
• SPRINKLER IRRIGATION SYSTEM
• FULL WALL SCREEN DOOR
• INTERIOR LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Living area reported as approximately 1,830 square feet (estimated)
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Homeowners association (annual fee $190; monthly approx. $15.83) - association approval required; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water (canal/lake available for irrigation); Public sewer; Cable connected; Natural gas connected; Public utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; One-story; South-facing; Residential zoning (RSF5)
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Enclosed porch; Screened porch; Hurricane shutters; Private heated in-ground gunite pool with tile finish, solar heat and solar cover, and outside bath access; On freshwater canal with water access and approximately 50 feet of canal frontage; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Open floorplan; Solid surface counters; Split bedroom floorplan; Walk-in closets; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with inside washer/dryer connections; Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $448k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-321 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $391k (12.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $317k (29.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $317k (29.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.1% in Rotonda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#548 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A-, cost of living B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Charlotte (suburban): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #22 of 73 in FL (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 863 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,585 units permitted in Charlotte County in 2024 (703 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,173/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($80k/yr) (locally 91% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Charlotte County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($434k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $220k; list at $448k implies a 104% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $317,277 (29.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.07%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $395,280
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7 Sportsman Ter	0.41mi	3/2.5	1,776 (-3%)	1mo	$405,000	$228	73
74 Broadmoor Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,866 (+2%)	2mo	$425,000	$228	72
181 Broadmoor Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,885 (+3%)	3mo	$350,000	$186	64
137 Mariner Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0	2,027 (+11%)	4mo	$365,900	$181	63
78 Broadmoor Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,706 (-7%)	8mo	$610,370	$358	61
251 Rotonda Blvd N	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,906 (+4%)	1mo	$401,000	$210	60
188 Broadmoor Ln	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,910 (+4%)	5mo	$390,000	$204	60
158 Mark Twain Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,670 (-9%)	5mo	$359,000	$215	58
101 Fairway Rd	0.31mi	3/2.5	2,085 (+14%)	8mo	$450,000	$216	54
36 Pinehurst Ct	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,720 (-6%)	2mo	$390,000	$227	52
209 Mark Twain Ln	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,588 (-13%)	4mo	$306,100	$193	48
35 Sportsman Pl	0.55mi	3/2.5	1,615 (-12%)	7mo	$380,000	$235	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.25% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-15,963
• Equity at exit: $158,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $14,345
• Equity at exit: $215,583

Cash invested: $125,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33947

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 863
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,173 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,349
• Tax from tax record: −$277 /mo · $3,321/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$15
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$666
• Net cashflow: $-321

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,579

Max offer price $391,239

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $111,975
• Closing costs: $13,437
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12 Broadmoor Rd Unit 1 Rotonda West, FL	3.0	2.0	2065	$3,500	$1.69	20d	1	0.34mi
80 Mariner Ln Rotonda West, FL	3.0	2.0	2052	$4,800	$2.34	20d	1	0.46mi
181 Bunker Rd Rotonda West, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$4,600	$3.39	20d	1	0.52mi
65 Fairway Rd Rotonda West, FL	3.0	2.0	1865	$2,700	$1.45	20d	1	0.53mi
123 Marker Rd Rotonda West, FL	3.0	2.0	2006	$2,400	$1.20	13d	1	0.60mi
30 Pinehurst Pl Rotonda West, FL	3.0	3.0	2461	$3,900	$1.58	20d	1	0.63mi
155 Long Meadow Ln Rotonda West, FL	3.0	2.0	1598	$4,500	$2.82	20d	1	0.67mi
36 Bunker Cir Rotonda West, FL	2.0	2.0	1533	$3,999	$2.61	20d	1	0.77mi
72 Long Meadow Ln Rotonda West, FL	3.0	2.0	1945	$1,920	$0.99	13d	1	0.77mi
25 Fairway Rd Rotonda West, FL	3.0	2.0	2068	$2,375	$1.15	20d	1	0.81mi
22 Mariner Ln Rotonda West, FL	3.0	2.0	2015	$4,200	$2.08	20d	1	0.85mi
87 Mark Twain Ln Rotonda West, FL	3.0	2.0	1235	$2,500	$2.02	20d	1	0.85mi
127 White Marsh Ln Rotonda West, FL	3.0	2.0	2216	$2,700	$1.22	20d	1	0.87mi
72 Long Meadow Ct Rotonda West, FL	3.0	2.0	1570	$5,200	$3.31	20d	1	0.89mi
527 Rotonda Cir Rotonda West, FL	3.0	2.0	1586	$2,375	$1.50	20d	1	0.90mi
118 Caddy Rd Rotonda West, FL	3.0	2.0	1828	$2,795	$1.53	20d	1	0.95mi
285 Mark Twain Ln Rotonda West, FL	3.0	2.0	1759	$1,750	$0.99	20d	1	0.96mi
589 Rotonda Cir Rotonda West, FL	3.0	2.5	2190	$4,200	$1.92	20d	1	0.96mi
613 Boundary Blvd Rotonda West, FL	3.0	2.0	2469	$2,900	$1.17	20d	1	1.07mi
230 Annapolis Ln Rotonda West, FL	3.0	2.0	1768	$1,800	$1.02	20d	1	1.09mi
114 Albatross Rd Rotonda West, FL	3.0	2.0	1648	$5,300	$3.22	20d	1	1.10mi
239 Annapolis Ln Rotonda West, FL	3.0	2.0	1747	$2,000	$1.14	20d	1	1.12mi
42 Mark Twain Ln Rotonda West, FL	3.0	2.5	1677	$2,800	$1.67	20d	1	1.14mi
107 Cottage Pl Rotonda West, FL	3.0	2.0	1397	$5,000	$3.58	20d	1	1.18mi
65 Oakland Hills Pl Rotonda West, FL	2.0	2.0	1444	$4,500	$3.12	20d	1	1.18mi
686 Boundary Blvd Rotonda West, FL	3.0	2.5	2282	$2,800	$1.23	20d	1	1.19mi
48 Par View Ct Rotonda West, FL	3.0	2.0	2000	$3,500	$1.75	20d	1	1.21mi
511 Sweetwater Dr Rotonda West, FL	4.0	2.5	2160	$2,200	$1.02	20d	1	1.33mi
37 Oakland Hills Pl Rotonda West, FL	3.0	2.0	1321	$4,000	$3.03	20d	1	1.34mi
60 Golfview Rd Rotonda West, FL	3.0	2.0	1336	$5,550	$4.15	20d	1	1.35mi
64 Golfview Rd Rotonda West, FL	4.0	2.0	1697	$1,795	$1.06	13d	1	1.38mi
45 Oakland Hills Ct Rotonda West, FL	4.0	2.0	1536	$2,700	$1.76	20d	1	1.44mi
138 Jade St Rotonda West, FL	3.0	2.0	1564	$1,869	$1.20	20d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $15 · $180/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $447,900 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $447,900 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $447,900 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $447,900 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $447,900 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $447,900 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $447,900 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $447,900 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $447,900 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $447,900 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $447,900 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $447,900 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $447,900 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $447,900 Active 43 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $447,900 Active 42 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $447,900 Active 41 DOM
17. 2026-05-07
    price $447,900
18. 2026-05-07
    price $4,447,900
19. 2026-04-19
    listed $465,000 Active
20. 2009-08-31
    soldstatus $220,000
21. 2009-08-28
    soldstatus $220,000 127-char remark

    Show marketing remark (127 chars)

    Lovely 3/3/2 home with heated pool. Oversized lanai over looks freshwater canal. Tastefully furnished and waiting your arrival.

22. 2009-05-06
    listed $239,000 127-char remark

    Show marketing remark (127 chars)

    Lovely 3/3/2 home with heated pool. Oversized lanai over looks freshwater canal. Tastefully furnished and waiting your arrival.

23. 2007-05-20
    historical
24. 2006-04-14
    listed $329,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,321 · $277/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,718 · $310/mo
• Expected delta: +$396/yr (+$33/mo · 11.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 57% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,073
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,089
• − Property taxes: −$3,321
• − Insurance: −$2,240
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,046
• − Management: −$3,046
• − HOA: −$180
• − Depreciation: −$13,030
• Taxable loss: −$11,878
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,851
• After-tax cash flow: $-998/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Charlotte
• NCES district ID: 1200240
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,864
• Composite: 45.62/100
• National rank: #2586
• State rank: #22 of 73 in FL

Livability — Rotonda

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #548
• US rank: #10359

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rotonda, FL
• County: Charlotte County · 196,994 people
• City population: 10,490
• Metro: Punta Gorda, FL
• Population (ZIP): 10,447
• Household income: $80,091
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 91.0

Population outlook (Charlotte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 198,646 people
• By 2030: 210,507 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 230,857 · +16.2%
• By 2050: 247,148 · +24.4%
• By 2075: 281,777 · +41.8%
• By 2100: 293,609 · +47.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Charlotte

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.0) · D 32.7% · R 66.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.7pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -34.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.0 2020: R+26.6 2016: R+27.8 2012: R+14.3 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.25%
• Current HPI: 311.3231
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.22%
• Metro: Punta Gorda, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+35.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $447,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $4,447,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-19 Listed $465,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records
• 2009-08-28 Sold (MLS) $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-05-06 Listed $239,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-05-20 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-04-14 Listed $329,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,321 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.