203 E College St

Ash Grove, MO 65604

$168,900B+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,510 sqft · Built 1967 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,550/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax + insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$536
• Net cashflow: $949/mo
• Annual: $11,392/yr
• Cap rate: 13.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.09%
• DSCR: 2.07
• 1% rule: 1.51%
• Cash to close: $47,292

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $169k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $949 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $169k).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#435 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Ash Grove R-IV (rural): math 33% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #121 of 324 in MO (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ash Grove Elem. (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #537 of 1,115 statewide, top 53%, 259 students, 47% FRL); Ash Grove High (math 22% / reading 52%, grade F, #291 of 521 statewide, top 60%, 329 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 5.4% in Ash Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.