203 E College St · Ash Grove, MO 65604

$168,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,510 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1967 1.01 ac lot Est $198k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Classic 1960's all- brick ranch on a 1 acre lot with a partiial basement in Ash Grove needs some updating. This 1785 (m/l) sqare foot home has 3 bedrooms 2 large bathrooms, and lots of built-in storage and a storage shed. This home has a 2-car attached garage with a pole barn on a concrete pad sitting on an L-shaped 1 acre lot in the city limits of Ash Grove just one block from Hwy 160 and the Muncy's Supermarket. Heat Pump is approx 2-3 years old. Call your realtor today to view this all brick home with a partial basement and an aceesibiity ramp.

Key facts

• Built in storage
• Pole barn
• Attached garage

Tags

• BUILT IN STORAGE
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• POLE BARN
• 1 ACRE OF LAND
• ONE BLOCK FROM HWY 160
• HEAT PUMP

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 1.01 acres; Road surface: asphalt and concrete; Publicly maintained road

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Driveway; Paved parking; Garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Accessible entrance with ramp; Irregular lot shape; City street frontage
• Construction: Frame and brick construction; Composition roof; Block foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Covered front porch and patio; Storm door(s); Wire fencing; Shed(s) / outbuilding

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Free-standing electric oven; Dishwasher
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating and cooling; Electric heating
• Interior features: Laminate countertops; Insulated double-pane windows; Water softener (owned); Disposal
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $949 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $169k).
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 5.4% in Ash Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#435 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Ash Grove R-IV (rural): math 33% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #121 of 324 in MO (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ash Grove Elem. (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #537 of 1,115 statewide, top 53%, 259 students, 47% FRL); Ash Grove High (math 22% / reading 52%, grade F, #291 of 521 statewide, top 60%, 329 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.09%
• DSCR: 2.07
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $197,810
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
206 N Webster Ave	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (-1%)	2mo	$109,900	$73	78
106 W College St	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,549 (+3%)	12mo	$198,500	$128	73
206 E Cawlfield St	0.22mi	3/2.5	1,411 (-7%)	6mo	$185,000	$131	69
902 E Auburn Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,515 (+0%)	14mo	$249,900	$165	63
606 E Prairie Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-4%)	8mo	$186,000	$128	62
806 E Grant St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,551 (+3%)	3mo	$235,000	$152	58
404 N Mcqueary Ave	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,723 (+14%)	10mo	$239,900	$139	54
600 W Cave St	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,426 (-6%)	1mo	$59,900	$42	51
103 Northview Ter	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,724 (+14%)	11mo	$245,000	$142	50
412 E Walker St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,722 (+14%)	6mo	$125,000	$73	49
101 W Murray St	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,380 (-9%)	12mo	$145,000	$105	41
204 S Calhoun Ave	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,637 (+8%)	19mo	$217,700	$133	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $33,068
• Equity at exit: $25,184

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.25×
• Total profit: $106,551
• Equity at exit: $14,603

Cash invested: $47,292 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65604

• Home prices YoY: -13.1%
• Active inventory: 60
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,550 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,309/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$536
• Net cashflow: $949

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,348

Max offer price $168,900

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,225
• Closing costs: $5,067
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
402 Coyote Pass Ash Grove, MO	4.0	2.0	2157	$2,550	$1.18	13d	1	0.42mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-21
   listed $168,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,309 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,638 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$329/yr (+$27/mo · 25.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,461
• − Property taxes: −$1,309
• − Insurance: −$844
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,448
• − Management: −$2,448
• − Depreciation: −$4,913
• Taxable income: $9,176
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,202
• After-tax cash flow: $9,189/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ash Grove R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2903270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $47,679
• Composite: 35.45/100
• National rank: #4929
• State rank: #121 of 324 in MO

Livability — Ash Grove

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #435
• US rank: #17867

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ash Grove, MO
• Population (ZIP): 3,909

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,054 people
• By 2030: 335,135 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 366,186 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 397,431 · +24.6%
• By 2075: 477,035 · +49.5%
• By 2100: 520,828 · +63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.9% · R 59.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.86%
• Current HPI: 231.5643
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $168,900 SOMO

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,309 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.