15 Marlin Rd

East Quogue, NY 11942

$1,395,000B

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,536 sqft · Built 2014 · SingleFamily · Active · 81 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $17,174/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,316
• Tax + insurance: −$1,973
• HOA: −$93
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,606
• Net cashflow: $4,186/mo
• Annual: $50,227/yr
• Cap rate: 10.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.17%
• DSCR: 1.63
• 1% rule: 1.23%
• Cash to close: $390,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $1.40M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($50k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($17k rent vs $1.40M).
• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.31M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.31M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $42k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#943 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Quogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #342 of 755 in NY (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $190k; list at $1.40M implies a 634% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $391k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.