15 Marlin Rd · East Quogue, NY 11942

$1,395,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,536 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 81 Days on market

Built 2014 0.26 ac lot $550/sqft · 18% below area Est $1710k · 18% under $93/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover your ideal retreat in Shinnecock Shores! This two-story residence is perfect for dual-family living, boasting 4 bedrooms, an office, a bonus room, and 3 full bathrooms, all complemented by breathtaking bay views. The home features a 1 car garage and was raised to FEMA compliant height in 2014. The outdoor area is a paradise for water enthusiasts, featuring a private dock with a 75-foot vinyl bulkhead installed in 2021, a roomy shed, a cozy fire pit, and east-facing decks perfect for capturing stunning sunrises. Shinnecock Shores community provides exclusive access to bay beaches, a playground, and deep water canals that lead straight to Shinnecock Bay. Whether you're seeking a tranquil escape or a savvy investment, this property offers endless possibilities. This property is being sold as-is.

Key facts

• East facing decks
• Private dock
• Deep water canals

Tags

• BREATHTAKING BAY VIEWS
• PRIVATE DOCK
• 75 FOOT VINYL BULKHEAD
• EAST FACING DECKS
• DEEP WATER CANALS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $1.40M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($50k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($17k rent vs $1.40M).
• Recommended offer: $1.31M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#943 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Quogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #342 of 755 in NY (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $42k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $391k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.31M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $190k; list at $1.40M implies a 634% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,311,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.17%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,709,785
• List price: $1,395,000
• Delta: -18.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
34 Shinnecock Rd	0.15mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,575 (+2%)	18mo	$1,550,000	$602	63
15 Osprey Ave	0.48mi	4/3.0	2,200 (-13%)	2mo	$1,700,000	$773	46
2 Canvasback Ln	0.64mi	4/4.5	2,276 (-10%)	16mo	$1,200,000	$527	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $40,630
• Equity at exit: $207,999

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $379,050
• Equity at exit: $120,614

Cash invested: $390,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11942

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $17,174 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,316
• Tax from tax record: −$965 /mo · $11,583/yr
• Insurance: −$581
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$93
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,606
• Net cashflow: $4,186

Break-even live

Break-even rent $11,875

Max offer price $1,395,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $348,750
• Closing costs: $41,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20 Marlin Rd East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.0	2000	$10,000	$5.00	43d	1	0.07mi
27 Shinnecock Rd East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	3400	$29,000	$8.53	1d	1	0.13mi
23 Whiting Rd East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.5	2296	$60,000	$26.13	22d	1	0.16mi
13 Beachland Ave East Quogue, NY	4.0	4.0	2028	$38,000	$18.74	22d	1	0.34mi
26 Squires Ave East Quogue, NY	4.0	2.5	2950	$7,000	$2.37	43d	1	0.81mi
10 Foxboro Rd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.5	2308	$17,000	$7.37	43d	1	0.85mi
58 Homewood Dr Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.0	2700	$17,000	$6.30	24d	1	0.89mi
10 Skyes Neck Ct East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	2249	$80,000	$35.57	24d	1	0.99mi
36 Walker Ave East Quogue, NY	5.0	3.0	2500	$23,000	$9.20	7d	1	1.21mi
2 Bayside Ave East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	2280	$80,000	$35.09	22d	1	1.23mi
4 Bennett Dr East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	2144	$11,000	$5.13	5d	1	1.28mi
4 Bennett Dr East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	2400	$11,000	$4.58	17d	1	1.28mi
3 Bennett Dr East Quogue, NY	4.0	4.0	2673	$5,000	$1.87	43d	1	1.30mi
21 Bayside Ave East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	2900	$14,000	$4.83	43d	1	1.30mi
4 Aerie Way East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	2400	$11,000	$4.58	15d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $93 · $1,116/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,395,000 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,395,000 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,395,000 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,395,000 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,395,000 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,395,000 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,395,000 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,395,000 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,395,000 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,395,000 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,395,000 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,395,000 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,395,000 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,395,000 Active 63 DOM
15. 2026-03-02
    listed $1,395,000 Active 817-char remark

    Show marketing remark (817 chars)

    Discover your ideal retreat in Shinnecock Shores! This two-story residence is perfect for dual-family living, boasting 4 bedrooms, an office, a bonus room, and 3 full bathrooms, all complemented by breathtaking bay views. The home features a 1 car garage and was raised to FEMA compliant height in 2014. The outdoor area is a paradise for water enthusiasts, featuring a private dock with a 75-foot vinyl bulkhead installed in 2021, a roomy shed, a cozy fire pit, and east-facing decks perfect for capturing stunning sunrises. Shinnecock Shores community provides exclusive access to bay beaches, a playground, and deep water canals that lead straight to Shinnecock Bay. Whether you're seeking a tranquil escape or a savvy investment, this property offers endless possibilities. This property is being sold as-is.

16. 2026-01-12
    historical
17. 2025-11-10
    listed $1,450,000 Active
18. 2012-12-19
    historical
19. 2012-05-29
    listed $595,000
20. 1992-12-18
    soldstatus $190,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $11,583 · $965/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $17,579 · $1,465/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,996/yr (+$500/mo · 51.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $206,083
• − Mortgage interest: −$78,142
• − Property taxes: −$11,583
• − Insurance: −$12,094
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$16,487
• − Management: −$16,487
• − HOA: −$1,116
• − Depreciation: −$40,582
• Taxable income: $29,594
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$7,102
• After-tax cash flow: $43,124/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Quogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609900
• Math proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $81,457
• Composite: 49.79/100
• National rank: #4207
• State rank: #342 of 755 in NY

Livability — East Quogue

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #943
• US rank: #18348

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Quogue, NY
• City population: 5,871
• Population (ZIP): 5,871

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 2% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.33%
• Current HPI: 435.8017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+634.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-02 Listed $1,395,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-12 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-10 Listed $1,450,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-12-19 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-05-29 Listed $595,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1992-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $190,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $11,583 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.