15 Marlin Rd · East Quogue, NY 11942

$1,375,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,536 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 178 Days on market

Built 2014 Good condition 0.26 ac lot $542/sqft · 20% below area Est $1.727M · 20% under $93/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover your ideal retreat in Shinnecock Shores! This two-story residence is perfect for dual-family living, boasting 4 bedrooms, an office, a bonus room, and 3 full bathrooms, all complemented by breathtaking bay views. The home features a 1 car garage and was raised to FEMA compliant height in 2014. The outdoor area is a paradise for water enthusiasts, featuring a private dock with a 75-foot vinyl bulkhead installed in 2021, a roomy shed, a cozy fire pit, and east-facing decks perfect for capturing stunning sunrises. Shinnecock Shores community provides exclusive access to bay beaches, a playground, and deep water canals that lead straight to Shinnecock Bay. Whether you're seeking a tranquil escape or a savvy investment, this property offers endless possibilities. This property is being sold as-is.

Key facts

• East facing decks
• Private dock
• Deep water canals

Tags

• BREATHTAKING BAY VIEWS
• PRIVATE DOCK
• 75 FOOT VINYL BULKHEAD
• EAST FACING DECKS
• DEEP WATER CANALS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $1.38M. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($43k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($16k rent vs $1.38M).
• Recommended offer: $1.21M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 6.6% in East Quogue — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#943 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Quogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #342 of 755 in NY (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: East Quogue School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 355 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 15% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 105 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 77d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $41k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $385k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 178 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.21M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $190k; list at $1.38M implies a 624% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,210,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 178 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.37%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,727,281
• List price: $1,375,000
• Delta: -20.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1 Marlin Rd	0.10mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,321 (-8%)	3mo	$1,750,000	$754	70
15 Osprey Ave	0.48mi	4/3.0	2,200 (-13%)	5mo	$1,700,000	$773	44
3 Fairview Rd	0.99mi	4/4.5	2,600 (+2%)	4mo	$875,000	$337	44
55 Squires Ave	0.88mi	4/3.5	2,374 (-6%)	2mo	$1,800,000	$758	43
11 Tiana Cir	1.11mi	4/4.0	2,476 (-2%)	12mo	$3,825,000	$1,545	39
4 Tamarack Ct	0.94mi	4/2.5	2,266 (-11%)	3mo	$1,400,000	$618	38
32 Rolling Hill Rd	1.04mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,500 (-1%)	14mo	$1,410,000	$564	38
7 Washington Dr	0.56mi	4/2.0	2,060 (-19%)	16mo	$1,100,000	$534	32
15 Wild Cherry Ln	0.99mi	4/3.0	2,800 (+10%)	18mo	$1,800,000	$643	25
2 Canvasback Ln	0.64mi	4/4.5	2,276 (-10%)	19mo	$1,200,000	$527	23
5 Tamarack Ln	0.90mi	4/3.0	2,100 (-17%)	13mo	$1,380,000	$657	21
64 Romana Dr	0.89mi	4/3.5	3,015 (+19%)	15mo	$1,900,000	$630	18

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $2,939
• Equity at exit: $205,017

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $293,527
• Equity at exit: $118,885

Cash invested: $385,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active · 9 under contract
• Months of supply: 1.2 mo (83%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $1,449,000 ($635/sqft)
• Median days on market: 223 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +7.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 11942

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Active inventory: 105
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $16,217 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,211
• Tax from tax record: −$965 /mo · $11,583/yr
• Insurance: −$573
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$93
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,406
• Net cashflow: $3,543

Break-even live

Break-even rent $11,732

Max offer price $1,375,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $4,321	-5% $3,932	+0% $3,543	+5% $3,154	+10% $2,765
Rent	-10% $2,262	-5% $2,902	+0% $3,543	+5% $4,183	+10% $4,824
Rate	-1.0pp $4,235	-0.5pp $3,893	base $3,543	+0.5pp $3,187	+1.0pp $2,824

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $343,750
• Closing costs: $41,250
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20 Marlin Rd East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.0	2000	$10,000	$5.00	139d	1	0.07mi
27 Shinnecock Rd East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	3400	$29,000	$8.53	37d	1	0.13mi
23 Whiting Rd East Quogue, NY	4.0	4.0	2296	$8,000	$3.48	0d	1	0.16mi
13 Beachland Ave East Quogue, NY	4.0	4.0	2028	$38,000	$18.74	117d	1	0.34mi
12 Canvasback Ln East Quogue, NY	4.0	2.5	2640	$27,000	$10.23	0d	1	0.62mi
26 Squires Ave East Quogue, NY	4.0	2.5	2950	$7,000	$2.37	139d	1	0.81mi
10 Foxboro Rd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.5	2308	$4,000	$1.73	0d	1	0.85mi
58 Homewood Dr Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.0	2700	$4,500	$1.67	0d	1	0.89mi
10 Skyes Neck Ct East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	2249	$80,000	$35.57	120d	1	0.99mi
43 Homewood Dr Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	2553	$25,000	$9.79	29d	1	1.00mi
23 Foster Xing East Quogue, NY	4.0	2.5	3133	$20,000	$6.38	51d	1	1.13mi
36 Walker Ave East Quogue, NY	5.0	3.0	2500	$17,999	$7.20	77d	1	1.21mi
2 Bayside Ave East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	2280	$80,000	$35.09	117d	1	1.23mi
4 Bennett Dr East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	2144	$10,000	$4.66	76d	1	1.28mi
4 Bennett Dr East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	2400	$11,000	$4.58	113d	1	1.28mi
3 Bennett Dr East Quogue, NY	4.0	4.0	2673	$5,000	$1.87	139d	1	1.30mi
21 Bayside Ave East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	2900	$22,000	$7.59	0d	1	1.30mi
4 Aerie Way East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	2400	$10,000	$4.17	76d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail $93/mo · $1,116/yr

• Likely covers: water

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $1,375,000 Active 178 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $1,375,000 Active 177 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $1,375,000 Active 176 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $1,375,000 Active 175 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $1,375,000 Active 174 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $1,375,000 Active 173 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $1,375,000 Active 172 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $1,375,000 Active 171 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $1,375,000 Active 170 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $1,375,000 Active 169 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $1,375,000 Active 168 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $1,375,000 Active 167 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $1,375,000 Active 166 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $1,375,000 Active 160 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $1,375,000 Active 159 DOM
16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $1,375,000 Active 157 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $1,375,000 Active 155 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $1,375,000 Active 153 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $1,375,000 Active 152 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $1,375,000 Active 151 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $1,375,000 Active 150 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $1,375,000 Active 149 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $1,375,000 Active 148 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $1,375,000 Active 147 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $1,375,000 Active 146 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $1,375,000 Active 145 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $1,375,000 Active 144 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $1,375,000 Active 143 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $1,375,000 Active 142 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $1,375,000 Active 141 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $1,375,000 Active 140 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $1,375,000 Active 139 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $1,375,000 Active 138 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $1,375,000 Active 137 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $1,375,000 Active 136 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    price $1,375,000 Active 135 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $1,395,000 Active 135 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $1,395,000 Active 134 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $1,395,000 Active 133 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $1,395,000 Active 132 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $1,395,000 Active 130 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $1,395,000 Active 129 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $1,395,000 Active 128 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $1,395,000 Active 127 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $1,395,000 Active 124 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $1,395,000 Active 123 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $1,395,000 Active 122 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $1,395,000 Active 121 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $1,395,000 Active 119 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $1,395,000 Active 117 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $11,583 · $965/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $17,410 · $1,451/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,827/yr (+$486/mo · 50.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $194,601
• − Mortgage interest: −$77,021
• − Property taxes: −$11,583
• − Insurance: −$11,994
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$15,568
• − Management: −$15,568
• − HOA: −$1,116
• − Depreciation: −$40,000
• Taxable income: $21,751
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,220
• After-tax cash flow: $37,294/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $12,680–$38,040 screening

This two-story home in Shinnecock Shores is in good condition with a good roof and exterior. It's move-in ready with a good paint job and fresh gutters, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 60/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary East Quogue School B- NY #745/2,108 Nat'l #7,252/41,679

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Quogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609900
• Math proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $81,457
• Composite: 49.79/100
• National rank: #4207
• State rank: #342 of 755 in NY

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — East Quogue

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #943
• US rank: #18348

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Quogue, NY
• County: Suffolk · 1,505,262 people
• City population: 5,871
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
• Population (ZIP): 5,871
• Household income: $106,875
• Rent vs Own: 14.6% rent · 85.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

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Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 2% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.33%
• Current HPI: 435.8017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+634.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-02 Listed $1,395,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-12 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-10 Listed $1,450,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-12-19 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-05-29 Listed $595,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1992-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $190,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $11,583 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.