23168 S Talkeetna Spur Rd

Talkeetna, AK 99676

$125,000C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 775 sqft · Built 1984 · Other · Active · 120 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,096/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$248
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $-38/mo
• Annual: $-452/yr
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.29%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-38 ($-452/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $118k (5.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (12.3% below list).
• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#14 in AK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 151 active listings in the ZIP; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (1.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.