23168 S Talkeetna Spur Rd · Talkeetna, AK 99676

$125,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 775 sqft · Other public records · 120 Days on market

Built 1984 0.99 ac lot $161/sqft · 10% below area Est $229k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

RAPID RIVERBANK EROSION!!, The property is priced for the value of the cabins only. Buyer should plan to move the structures or reinforce the riverbank. Susitna Riverfront Property just minutes from downtown Talkeetna, this unique riverfront property features 2 cabins with city water, and private septic, with stunning views of the Susitna River and Alaska Range from both cabins. Holding tank was pumped in November. Sold AS-IS, WHERE-IS, with all belongings included. No repairs will be made. Property is subject to the Talkeetna SpUD regulations. See documents tab for regulations

Key facts

• Riverfront property
• Stunning views
• City water

Tags

• RIVERFRONT PROPERTY
• CITY WATER
• PRIVATE SEPTIC
• STUNNING VIEWS
• TALKEETNA SPUD REGULATIONS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-38 ($-452/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $118k (5.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (12.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#14 in AK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 151 active listings in the ZIP; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.3% local appreciation)).
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $109,614 (12.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.29%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $228,918
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -45.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.29% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $1,786
• Equity at exit: $44,597

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $24,358
• Equity at exit: $60,783

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99676

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,096 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$196 /mo · $2,353/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $-38

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,144

Max offer price $118,340

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $33	-5% $-2	+0% $-38	+5% $-73	+10% $-108
Rent	-10% $-124	-5% $-81	+0% $-38	+5% $6	+10% $49
Rate	-1.0pp $25	-0.5pp $-6	base $-38	+0.5pp $-70	+1.0pp $-103

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 120 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 105 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 102 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 101 DOM
16. 2026-04-29
    price $125,000 585-char remark

    Show marketing remark (585 chars)

    RAPID RIVERBANK EROSION!!, The property is priced for the value of the cabins only. Buyer should plan to move the structures or reinforce the riverbank. Susitna Riverfront Property just minutes from downtown Talkeetna, this unique riverfront property features 2 cabins with city water, and private septic, with stunning views of the Susitna River and Alaska Range from both cabins. Holding tank was pumped in November. Sold AS-IS, WHERE-IS, with all belongings included. No repairs will be made. Property is subject to the Talkeetna SpUD regulations. See documents tab for regulations

17. 2026-04-14
    status Active 585-char remark

    Show marketing remark (585 chars)

    RAPID RIVERBANK EROSION!!, The property is priced for the value of the cabins only. Buyer should plan to move the structures or reinforce the riverbank. Susitna Riverfront Property just minutes from downtown Talkeetna, this unique riverfront property features 2 cabins with city water, and private septic, with stunning views of the Susitna River and Alaska Range from both cabins. Holding tank was pumped in November. Sold AS-IS, WHERE-IS, with all belongings included. No repairs will be made. Property is subject to the Talkeetna SpUD regulations. See documents tab for regulations

18. 2026-03-24
    status Pending 585-char remark

    Show marketing remark (585 chars)

    RAPID RIVERBANK EROSION!!, The property is priced for the value of the cabins only. Buyer should plan to move the structures or reinforce the riverbank. Susitna Riverfront Property just minutes from downtown Talkeetna, this unique riverfront property features 2 cabins with city water, and private septic, with stunning views of the Susitna River and Alaska Range from both cabins. Holding tank was pumped in November. Sold AS-IS, WHERE-IS, with all belongings included. No repairs will be made. Property is subject to the Talkeetna SpUD regulations. See documents tab for regulations

19. 2026-01-28
    listed $159,000 Active 585-char remark

    Show marketing remark (585 chars)

    RAPID RIVERBANK EROSION!!, The property is priced for the value of the cabins only. Buyer should plan to move the structures or reinforce the riverbank. Susitna Riverfront Property just minutes from downtown Talkeetna, this unique riverfront property features 2 cabins with city water, and private septic, with stunning views of the Susitna River and Alaska Range from both cabins. Holding tank was pumped in November. Sold AS-IS, WHERE-IS, with all belongings included. No repairs will be made. Property is subject to the Talkeetna SpUD regulations. See documents tab for regulations

20. 2026-01-15
    soldstatus Closed 627-char remark

    Show marketing remark (627 chars)

    Susitna Riverfront Property just minutes from downtown Talkeetna, this unique riverfront property features 2 cabins with city water, and private septic, with stunning views of the Susitna River and Alaska Range from both cabins! One cabin is occupied by a caretaker. Due to rapid riverbank erosion, the property is priced for the value of the cabins only. Buyer should plan to move the structures or reinforce the riverbank. Septic tank was pumped in November. Sold AS-IS, WHERE-IS, with all belongings included. No repairs will be made. Property is subject to the Talkeetna SpUD regulations. See documents tab for regulations

21. 2025-12-14
    status Pending 627-char remark

    Show marketing remark (627 chars)

    Susitna Riverfront Property just minutes from downtown Talkeetna, this unique riverfront property features 2 cabins with city water, and private septic, with stunning views of the Susitna River and Alaska Range from both cabins! One cabin is occupied by a caretaker. Due to rapid riverbank erosion, the property is priced for the value of the cabins only. Buyer should plan to move the structures or reinforce the riverbank. Septic tank was pumped in November. Sold AS-IS, WHERE-IS, with all belongings included. No repairs will be made. Property is subject to the Talkeetna SpUD regulations. See documents tab for regulations

22. 2025-12-12
    listed $109,000 Active 627-char remark

    Show marketing remark (627 chars)

    Susitna Riverfront Property just minutes from downtown Talkeetna, this unique riverfront property features 2 cabins with city water, and private septic, with stunning views of the Susitna River and Alaska Range from both cabins! One cabin is occupied by a caretaker. Due to rapid riverbank erosion, the property is priced for the value of the cabins only. Buyer should plan to move the structures or reinforce the riverbank. Septic tank was pumped in November. Sold AS-IS, WHERE-IS, with all belongings included. No repairs will be made. Property is subject to the Talkeetna SpUD regulations. See documents tab for regulations

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,353 · $196/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,353 · $196/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 17% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,154
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$2,353
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,052
• − Management: −$1,052
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$2,567
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$616
• After-tax cash flow: $164/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Talkeetna

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #14
• US rank: #6031

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime B Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Talkeetna, AK
• Population (ZIP): 1,754

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Lithuanian 4% Russian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.29%
• Current HPI: 182.0125
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+14.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $125,000 AKMLS
• 2026-04-14 Relisted — AKMLS
• 2026-03-24 Pending — AKMLS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $159,000 AKMLS
• 2026-01-15 Sold (MLS) — AKMLS
• 2025-12-14 Pending — AKMLS
• 2025-12-12 Listed $109,000 AKMLS

Property tax history

+16.2%/yr

Latest (2018): $2,353 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.