3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,328 sqft ·
Built 2026
· Land
· Pending
· 21 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,170/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,573
Tax + insurance
−$500
HOA
−$112
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$456
Net cashflow
$-470/mo
Annual
$-5,646/yr
Cap rate
4.41%
Cash-on-cash
-6.72%
DSCR
0.70
1% rule
0.72%
Cash to close
$83,997
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $300k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-470 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (22.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (27.6% below list).
It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $217k (27.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 76/100 on livability (#227 in FL, #3,587 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, commute F.
Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Springhead Elementary School (math 55% / reading 39%, grade D-, #1,191 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 735 students, 76% FRL); Marshall Middle Magnet School (math 28% / reading 31%, grade F, #469 of 571 statewide, top 84%, 1,089 students, 69% FRL); Plant City High School (math 38% / reading 40%, grade F, #312 of 667 statewide, top 48%, 2,474 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 52% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 166 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-B4J2J28KFFM9SK
· Data 12 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29