321 Elm Dr

McQueeney, TX 78123

$209,000D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Built 2003 · Manufactured · Active · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,617/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax + insurance: −$296
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $-115/mo
• Annual: $-1,377/yr
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.35%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $58,520

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $209k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-115 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (9.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (22.6% below list).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $162k (22.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $882 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-563 appreciation (-0.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#559 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Seguin ISD (town): math 26% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #663 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mcqueeney El (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 314 students, 84% FRL); Briesemeister Middle (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,662 statewide, top 88%, 725 students, 77% FRL); Seguin H S (math 24% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,011 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 2,101 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 1.6% in McQueeney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.