321 Elm Dr · McQueeney, TX 78123

$209,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 14 Days on market

Built 2003 0.34 ac lot Est $301k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious double wide with 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths in Lake McQueeney Estates. The front yard has 2 huge Red Oak trees that gives perfect shade in the summer. The large backyard has a storage shed. 2 refrigerators and the washer/dryer will convey. This home is being sold AS IS.

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Modern amenities
• Finished area

Tags

• FINISHED AREA
• LARGE BACKYARD
• MODERN AMENITIES
• DESIRABLE NEIGHBORHOOD
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Subdivision: LAKE MC QUEENEY ESTATES #1

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Septic system
• Home design: Pre-owned home; Approximate age: 23 years
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Siding exterior

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove/Range; Microwave oven; Refrigerator; Kitchen area (16 x 6)
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom with multiple closets, ceiling fan, and full bath; Bedroom 2: 11 x 13; Bedroom 3: 11 x 11; Bedroom 4: 9 x 13; Master bedroom dimensions: 13 x 13
• Flooring: Carpeting; Ceramic tile; Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Master bath with shower only and double vanity (10 x 5)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans throughout; Chandelier; High-speed internet available; Laundry room; All window coverings remain; Smoke alarm; Electric water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $209k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $267 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $209k).
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 1.6% in McQueeney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#559 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Seguin ISD (town): math 26% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #663 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mcqueeney El (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 314 students, 84% FRL); Briesemeister Middle (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,662 statewide, top 88%, 725 students, 77% FRL); Seguin H S (math 24% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,011 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 2,101 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $882 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-563 appreciation (-0.3% local appreciation)).
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.47%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $301,056
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
614 Woodcreek	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,552 (-1%)	10mo	$297,777	$192	61
2158 Terminal Loop Rd	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (+14%)	5mo	$118,000	$66	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.27% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $8,249
• Equity at exit: $57,889

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $53,548
• Equity at exit: $67,390

Cash invested: $58,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78123

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,100 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax from tax record: −$209 /mo · $2,508/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $267

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,762

Max offer price $209,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $385	-5% $326	+0% $267	+5% $208	+10% $149
Rent	-10% $101	-5% $184	+0% $267	+5% $350	+10% $433
Rate	-1.0pp $372	-0.5pp $320	base $267	+0.5pp $213	+1.0pp $158

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,250
• Closing costs: $6,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
156 Trelawney St McQueeney, TX	3.0	3.0	2122	$2,600	$1.23	3d	1	0.55mi
906 Lakeview Trl Mc Queeney, TX	3.0	2.0	1942	$3,500	$1.80	0d	1	0.79mi
249 Free Waters Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,800	$1.08	0d	1	1.06mi
3824 High Tide Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,545	$1.05	0d	1	1.12mi
205 Free Waters Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,549	$1.05	0d	1	1.15mi
3812 Far Horizon Seguin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$1,825	$0.97	13d	1	1.15mi
3812 Far Horizon Seguin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$1,825	$0.97	0d	1	1.15mi
1100 River Wood Seguin, TX	4.0	3.0	2147	$2,295	$1.07	12d	1	1.24mi
1109 Elm Fall Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1879	$1,950	$1.04	6d	1	1.24mi
1109 Elm Fall Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1879	$1,950	$1.04	21d	1	1.24mi
3873 Far Horizon Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,853	$1.11	0d	1	1.26mi
3945 Far Horizon Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,721	$1.17	0d	1	1.32mi
1144 Amber Lk Seguin, TX	4.0	3.0	2143	$2,150	$1.00	0d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $209,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $209,000 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-02
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $209,000 Active 1 DOM
9. 2026-05-26
   listed $224,900 New
10. 2022-04-21
    soldstatus
11. 2022-04-14
    soldstatus Sold 280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    Spacious double wide with 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths in Lake McQueeney Estates. The front yard has 2 huge Red Oak trees that gives perfect shade in the summer. The large backyard has a storage shed. 2 refrigerators and the washer/dryer will convey. This home is being sold AS IS.

12. 2022-04-14
    soldstatus Closed

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    Spacious double wide with 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths in Lake McQueeney Estates. The front yard has 2 huge Red Oak trees that gives perfect shade in the summer. The large backyard has a storage shed. 2 refrigerators and the washer/dryer will convey. This home is being sold AS IS.

13. 2022-04-14
    soldstatus Sold

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    Spacious double wide with 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths in Lake McQueeney Estates. The front yard has 2 huge Red Oak trees that gives perfect shade in the summer. The large backyard has a storage shed. 2 refrigerators and the washer/dryer will convey. This home is being sold AS IS.

14. 2022-03-14
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    Spacious double wide with 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths in Lake McQueeney Estates. The front yard has 2 huge Red Oak trees that gives perfect shade in the summer. The large backyard has a storage shed. 2 refrigerators and the washer/dryer will convey. This home is being sold AS IS.

15. 2022-03-14
    status Pending 280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    Spacious double wide with 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths in Lake McQueeney Estates. The front yard has 2 huge Red Oak trees that gives perfect shade in the summer. The large backyard has a storage shed. 2 refrigerators and the washer/dryer will convey. This home is being sold AS IS.

16. 2022-03-13
    status Pending
17. 2022-03-02
    status Option Pending

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    Spacious double wide with 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths in Lake McQueeney Estates. The front yard has 2 huge Red Oak trees that gives perfect shade in the summer. The large backyard has a storage shed. 2 refrigerators and the washer/dryer will convey. This home is being sold AS IS.

18. 2022-03-02
    historical Active Under Contract

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    Spacious double wide with 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths in Lake McQueeney Estates. The front yard has 2 huge Red Oak trees that gives perfect shade in the summer. The large backyard has a storage shed. 2 refrigerators and the washer/dryer will convey. This home is being sold AS IS.

19. 2022-03-02
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    Spacious double wide with 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths in Lake McQueeney Estates. The front yard has 2 huge Red Oak trees that gives perfect shade in the summer. The large backyard has a storage shed. 2 refrigerators and the washer/dryer will convey. This home is being sold AS IS.

20. 2022-03-02
    historical Active Option 280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    Spacious double wide with 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths in Lake McQueeney Estates. The front yard has 2 huge Red Oak trees that gives perfect shade in the summer. The large backyard has a storage shed. 2 refrigerators and the washer/dryer will convey. This home is being sold AS IS.

21. 2022-02-09
    listed $185,000 New 280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    Spacious double wide with 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths in Lake McQueeney Estates. The front yard has 2 huge Red Oak trees that gives perfect shade in the summer. The large backyard has a storage shed. 2 refrigerators and the washer/dryer will convey. This home is being sold AS IS.

22. 2022-02-09
    listed $185,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    Spacious double wide with 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths in Lake McQueeney Estates. The front yard has 2 huge Red Oak trees that gives perfect shade in the summer. The large backyard has a storage shed. 2 refrigerators and the washer/dryer will convey. This home is being sold AS IS.

23. 2022-02-09
    listed $185,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    Spacious double wide with 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths in Lake McQueeney Estates. The front yard has 2 huge Red Oak trees that gives perfect shade in the summer. The large backyard has a storage shed. 2 refrigerators and the washer/dryer will convey. This home is being sold AS IS.

24. 2022-02-09
    listed $185,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    Spacious double wide with 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths in Lake McQueeney Estates. The front yard has 2 huge Red Oak trees that gives perfect shade in the summer. The large backyard has a storage shed. 2 refrigerators and the washer/dryer will convey. This home is being sold AS IS.

25. 2000-10-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,508 · $209/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,825 · $319/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,317/yr (+$110/mo · 52.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,198
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,707
• − Property taxes: −$2,508
• − Insurance: −$1,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,016
• − Management: −$2,016
• − Depreciation: −$6,080
• Taxable loss: −$173
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$42
• After-tax cash flow: $3,243/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seguin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839690
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,210
• Composite: 24.17/100
• National rank: #7738
• State rank: #663 of 826 in TX

Livability — McQueeney

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #559
• US rank: #10747

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: McQueeney, TX
• City population: 2,271
• Population (ZIP): 2,271

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 22% Asian 6% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Iranian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.27%
• Current HPI: 179.3354
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+21.6% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $224,900 LERA
• 2022-04-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-04-14 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2022-04-14 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-04-14 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2022-03-14 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2022-03-14 Pending — LERA
• 2022-03-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-03-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-03-02 Contingent — Unlock MLS
• 2022-03-02 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2022-03-02 Contingent — LERA
• 2022-02-09 Listed $185,000 LERA
• 2022-02-09 Listed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2022-02-09 Listed $185,000 Unlock MLS
• 2022-02-09 Listed $185,000 CTXMLS
• 2000-10-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+15.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,508 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.