11021 Paddock Dr

Florence, KY 41094

$10,000F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,580 sqft · Built 1986 · SingleFamily · Pending · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,919/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,450
• Tax + insurance: −$1,096
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $-3,031/mo
• Annual: $-36,369/yr
• Cap rate: 0.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -19.74%
• DSCR: 0.12
• 1% rule: 0.29%
• Cash to close: $184,212

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $10k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-36k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $10k).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($10k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $10k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#82 in KY, #2,763 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-.
• Boone County (suburban): math 43% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #12 of 165 in KY (top 7%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: New Haven Elementary School (math 60% / reading 54%, grade C+, #47 of 676 statewide, top 8%, 675 students, 22% FRL); Gray Middle School (math 57% / reading 61%, grade B, #3 of 217 statewide, top 1%, 1,029 students, 27% FRL); Larry A. Ryle High School (math 50% / reading 48%, grade D, #15 of 254 statewide, top 6%, 2,013 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 98.7% of price.
• Market conditions: 181 active listings in the ZIP; 1,430 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (928 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Boone County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 0.8% vs local median 3.4% in Florence — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.