11021 Paddock Dr · Florence, KY 41094

$10,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,580 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1986 0.46 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Name your price at auction! This spacious 4 bedroom, 3 bath home in the desirable Heritage Trails community off Richwood Rd. in Walton--located within the Ryle School District--will sell to the highest bidder at auction, subject to seller confirmation. The property features a welcoming front porch, extended garage, and an inviting backyard, all with the added benefit of no HOA. With a little TLC and your personal touch, this home offers a wonderful opportunity to make it truly your own. Listing price is opening bid only. Property is selling on reserve auction and will sell to the highest bidder once reserve has been met. Auction ends Sunday, May 3, 2026 at 7:00PM EST. Inspections are at buy

Key facts

• Inviting backyard
• Front porch
• No hoa

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• INVITING BACKYARD
• NO HOA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Garage faces front; Oversized 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family house; Two levels
• Construction: Built in 1986; Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Shingle roof; Poured concrete foundation
• Exterior features: Gazebo; Shed(s); Level lot; Paved road frontage on a city street; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (15.6 x 12.11); Bedroom 2 (12 x 11.3); Bedroom 3 (11.1 x 11.3); Bedroom 4 (11.7 x 12.4)
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; Primary bath (8.2 x 8.11); Bathroom 2 (7.11 x 7.2); Bathroom 3 (6 x 7)
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced-air heating
• Interior features: Tray ceilings; Soaking tub; Pantry; Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Double vanities; Chandelier; Built-in features; Beamed ceilings; Ceiling fans; Recessed lighting; Brick wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

🔨 Auction listing. The $10,000 list price is a nominal opening bid, not a real ask — every metric below is computed on the estimated value $657,900 (ARV from comps), not the list price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $10k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-36k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $10k).
• Recommended offer: $10k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 0.8% vs local median 3.4% in Florence — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#82 in KY, #2,763 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-.
• Boone County (suburban): math 43% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #12 of 165 in KY (top 7%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: New Haven Elementary School (math 60% / reading 54%, grade C+, #47 of 676 statewide, top 8%, 675 students, 22% FRL); Gray Middle School (math 57% / reading 61%, grade B, #3 of 217 statewide, top 1%, 1,029 students, 27% FRL); Larry A. Ryle High School (math 50% / reading 48%, grade D, #15 of 254 statewide, top 6%, 2,013 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 179 active listings in the ZIP; 1,430 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (928 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Boone County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($10k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 98.7% of price.

Recommended offer $9,850 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.29% ✗
• Cap rate: 0.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -19.74%
• DSCR: 0.12
• GRM: 28.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $657,900
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11021 Paddock Dr	0.00mi	4/3.0	2,580 (0%)	1mo	$330,000	$128	98
11012 Appaloosa Drive Dr	0.20mi	4/3.0	2,268 (-12%)	5mo	$460,000	$203	64
10836 Secretariat	0.26mi	4/2.5	2,346 (-9%)	12mo	$465,000	$198	63
744 Count Fleet Dr	0.64mi	4/3.5	2,521 (-2%)	0mo	$725,000	$288	62
812 Keeneland Green Dr	0.56mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,688 (+4%)	10mo	$699,500	$260	54
1508 Authentic Ct	0.64mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,740 (+6%)	19mo	$698,161	$255	39
10797 Saint Leger Cir	0.72mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,918 (+13%)	5mo	$675,000	$231	35
741 Man O War Blvd	0.72mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,717 (+5%)	16mo	$781,709	$288	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -57.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.63×
• Total profit: $-299,612
• Equity at exit: $98,095

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.76×
• Total profit: $-509,339
• Equity at exit: $56,883

Cash invested: $184,212 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41094

• Home prices YoY: -28.1%
• Active inventory: 179
• Price-to-rent: 0.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,919 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,450
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$822 /mo · $9,868/yr
• Insurance: −$274
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $-3,031

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,755

Max offer price $219,340

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $164,475
• Closing costs: $19,737
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   listed $10,000 Active
3. 1986-09-17
   soldstatus $116,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,025
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,853
• − Property taxes: −$9,868
• − Insurance: −$3,290
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,842
• − Management: −$1,842
• − Depreciation: −$19,139
• Taxable loss: −$49,809
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$11,954
• After-tax cash flow: $-24,415/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Boone County
• NCES district ID: 2100510
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $68,096
• Composite: 41.18/100
• National rank: #3550
• State rank: #12 of 165 in KY

Livability — Florence

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #82
• US rank: #2763

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 57,634
• Population (ZIP): 14,798

Population outlook (Boone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,066 people
• By 2030: 152,005 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 166,776 · +15.8%
• By 2050: 178,974 · +24.2%
• By 2075: 204,515 · +42.0%
• By 2100: 215,306 · +49.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Pacific Islander 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Boone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.2) · D 30.6% · R 67.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.7pp toward R · 2008: -34.5pp · 2024: -37.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.2 2020: R+35.7 2016: R+41.8 2012: R+38.7 2008: R+34.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.84%
• Current HPI: 227.3544
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-91.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — NKMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $10,000 NKMLS
• 1986-09-17 Sold (Public Records) $116,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,473 · +22.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.