Flourish Plan

Wickenburg, AZ 85390

$404,900F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,811 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 647 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,863/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,736
• Tax + insurance: −$1,187
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$601
• Net cashflow: $-2,661/mo
• Annual: $-31,930/yr
• Cap rate: 1.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.01%
• DSCR: 0.29
• 1% rule: 0.40%
• Cash to close: $199,451

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $405k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-32k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $327k (19.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $286k (29.3% below list).
• It's been on market 647 days — a 12% lower offer ($356k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $286k (29.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#41 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Wickenburg Unified District (4236) (rural): math 33% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #92 of 249 in AZ (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Market conditions: 378 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Cap rate 1.8% vs local median 3.0% in Wickenburg — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $2,863/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) (locally 251% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 647 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.