Flourish Plan · Wickenburg, AZ 85390

$404,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,811 sqft · SingleFamily · 647 Days on market

↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +1.9/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

55+ & All-Ages Resort Community, Open Floor Plan, Spacious Primary Bedroom with Walk-In Closet , Large Kitchen Island, 2 Car Garage, Covered Patio , Single Story Design, Den, Optional Multi Slide Door at Great Room, This plan modeled here and Trilogy Sunstone, Optional 4th Bedroom , Optional French Door at Primary Bedroom to Patio

Key facts

• Large kitchen island
• Resort community
• Single story design

Tags

• RESORT COMMUNITY
• SPACIOUS PRIMARY BEDROOM
• LARGE KITCHEN ISLAND
• COVERED PATIO
• SINGLE STORY DESIGN
• OPTIONAL MULTI SLIDE DOOR

🏗️ New construction. The $404,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $712,327.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $405k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-32k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $327k (19.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $286k (29.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $286k (29.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.8% vs local median 3.0% in Wickenburg — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#41 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Wickenburg Unified District (4236) (rural): math 33% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #92 of 249 in AZ (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 378 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,863/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) (locally 251% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 647 days — a 12% lower offer ($356k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.

Recommended offer $286,319 (29.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 647 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.40% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.01%
• DSCR: 0.29
• GRM: 20.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $712,327
• List price: $404,900
• Delta: -43.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3205 Rising Sun Rdg	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,950 (+8%)	3mo	$550,000	$282	70
3410 Maverick Dr	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,845 (+2%)	14mo	$825,000	$447	66
3215 Rising Sun Rdg	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,578 (-13%)	3mo	$345,000	$219	60
3739 Goldmine Canyon Way	0.67mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,813 (+0%)	3mo	$542,000	$299	59
3661 Quartz Cir	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,981 (+9%)	5mo	$589,000	$297	57
3775 Goldmine Canyon Way	0.70mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,825 (+1%)	6mo	$550,000	$301	54
3285 Maverick Dr	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,570 (-13%)	9mo	$460,000	$293	53
3783 Goldmine Canyon Way	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,709 (-6%)	1mo	$530,000	$310	52
3820 Ridge Runner Way	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,959 (+8%)	9mo	$590,000	$301	44
3690 Gold Rush Ct	0.75mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,976 (+9%)	8mo	$445,000	$225	38
3765 Gold Ridge Rd	0.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,648 (-9%)	12mo	$417,000	$253	36
3935 Bright Sky Ct	0.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,959 (+8%)	13mo	$699,000	$357	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -47.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.43×
• Total profit: $-284,853
• Equity at exit: $106,210

10-year hold

• IRR: -90.7%
• Equity multiple: -1.34×
• Total profit: $-466,087
• Equity at exit: $61,589

Cash invested: $199,451 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85390

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Active inventory: 378
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,863 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,736
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$890 /mo · $10,685/yr
• Insurance: −$297
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$601
• Net cashflow: $-2,661

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,231

Max offer price $327,303

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $178,082
• Closing costs: $21,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3753 Goldmine Canyon Way Wickenburg, AZ	2.0	2.0	1713	$3,500	$2.04	1d	1	0.70mi
3753 Goldmine Canyon Way Wickenburg, AZ	2.0	2.0	1713	$2,700	$1.58	22d	1	0.70mi
4002 Desert Moon Dr Wickenburg, AZ	2.0	2.5	1678	$3,500	$2.09	1d	1	0.77mi
4060 Old Orchard Dr Wickenburg, AZ	2.0	2.5	2043	$4,000	$1.96	24d	1	0.83mi
4086 Prairie Schooner Rd Wickenburg, AZ	2.0	2.0	1542	$3,500	$2.27	1d	1	0.85mi
3904 Goldmine Canyon Way Wickenburg, AZ	2.0	2.5	1751	$2,600	$1.48	1d	1	0.87mi
3975 Rolling Stock Way Wickenburg, AZ	3.0	2.5	2362	$3,300	$1.40	1d	1	0.95mi
3261 Huckleberry Way Wickenburg, AZ	2.0	2.5	1777	$2,000	$1.13	4d	1	1.14mi
3231 Huckleberry Way Wickenburg, AZ	2.0	2.5	1751	$3,900	$2.23	19d	1	1.17mi
4345 Cutter Ln Wickenburg, AZ	2.0	2.0	1578	$3,500	$2.22	11d	1	1.18mi
4345 Cutter Ln Wickenburg, AZ	2.0	2.0	1578	$2,700	$1.71	24d	1	1.18mi
4295 Sawbuck Way Wickenburg, AZ	2.0	2.5	1869	$2,700	$1.44	1d	1	1.26mi
4439 Copper Mine Ct Wickenburg, AZ	3.0	2.0	1831	$5,900	$3.22	4d	1	1.31mi
3021 Prospector Way Wickenburg, AZ	4.0	2.0	1835	$2,450	$1.34	24d	1	1.32mi
4463 Copper Mine Ct Wickenburg, AZ	3.0	2.0	1839	$6,000	$3.26	22d	1	1.33mi
3106 Prospector Way Wickenburg, AZ	2.0	2.0	1691	$2,050	$1.21	1d	1	1.35mi
3199 Prospector Way Wickenburg, AZ	3.0	3.5	2340	$4,250	$1.82	1d	1	1.38mi
4331 Greenhorn Way Wickenburg, AZ	2.0	2.0	1750	$2,500	$1.43	1d	1	1.38mi
4468 Covered Wagon Trl Wickenburg, AZ	2.0	2.0	1506	$2,250	$1.49	1d	1	1.39mi
4527 Charro Ct Wickenburg, AZ	2.0	2.0	1624	$2,400	$1.48	1d	1	1.41mi
4540 Jackpot Rd Wickenburg, AZ	2.0	2.0	1669	$2,560	$1.53	1d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $404,900 Active 647 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $404,900 Active 646 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $404,900 Active 645 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $404,900 Active 644 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $404,900 Active 642 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $404,900 Active 641 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $404,900 Active 638 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $404,900 Active 637 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $404,900 Active 636 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $404,900 Active 633 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $404,900 Active 632 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $404,900 Active 631 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $404,900 Active 630 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $404,900 Active 629 DOM
15. 2025-05-03
    price $404,900 338-char remark

    Show marketing remark (338 chars)

    55+ & All-Ages Resort Community, Open Floor Plan, Spacious Primary Bedroom with Walk-In Closet , Large Kitchen Island, 2 Car Garage, Covered Patio , Single Story Design, Den, Optional Multi Slide Door at Great Room, This plan modeled here and Trilogy Sunstone, Optional 4th Bedroom , Optional French Door at Primary Bedroom to Patio

16. 2024-09-09
    listed $436,900 Active 338-char remark

    Show marketing remark (338 chars)

    55+ & All-Ages Resort Community, Open Floor Plan, Spacious Primary Bedroom with Walk-In Closet , Large Kitchen Island, 2 Car Garage, Covered Patio , Single Story Design, Den, Optional Multi Slide Door at Great Room, This plan modeled here and Trilogy Sunstone, Optional 4th Bedroom , Optional French Door at Primary Bedroom to Patio

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,358
• − Mortgage interest: −$39,901
• − Property taxes: −$10,685
• − Insurance: −$3,562
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,749
• − Management: −$2,749
• − Depreciation: −$20,722
• Taxable loss: −$46,009
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$11,042
• After-tax cash flow: $-20,888/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wickenburg Unified District (4236)
• NCES district ID: 0409190
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,369
• Composite: 29.27/100
• National rank: #6560
• State rank: #92 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Wickenburg

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #41
• US rank: #7975

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wickenburg, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 10,298
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 10,298
• Household income: $68,591
• Rent vs Own: 17.9% rent · 82.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.26%
• Current HPI: 314.3169
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-7.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-05-03 Price Changed $404,900 Zillow
• 2024-09-09 Listed $436,900 Zillow