438 Ned Fork Rd

McDowell, KY 41647

$55,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 1998 · Manufactured · Active · 61 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,038/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax + insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$218
• Net cashflow: $464/mo
• Annual: $5,563/yr
• Cap rate: 16.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.12%
• DSCR: 2.61
• 1% rule: 1.89%
• Cash to close: $15,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $55k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $464 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($52k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $52k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#438 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Floyd County (rural): math 13% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #157 of 165 in KY (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: South Floyd Elementary School (math 11% / reading 31%, grade F, #560 of 676 statewide, top 83%, 608 students, 84% FRL); Floyd Central High School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #158 of 254 statewide, top 68%, 552 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Floyd County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Floyd County population projected at -36% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.