438 Ned Fork Rd · McDowell, KY 41647

$55,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1998 2.00 ac lot ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom 2 bath fixer upper with all the privacy you need. This property is eligible under the First Look Initiative. All owner occupant offers will be responded to after 7 days on the market and Investor offers will be responded to after 30 days. However, all offers can be submitted during the First Look period. All offers must be entered through propoffers.com. An offer management fee of $200 (plus tax, where applicable) is charged by Pyramid Platform in connection with the use of propoffers.com. This fee will be paid at closing from the agent representing the buyer as selling agent or transaction broker. Subject to seller addendum.

Key facts

• 2 acre lot
• Built 1998
• Listed 60 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Septic tank; Other utilities
• Home design: One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Metal roof; Building area approximately 1,248 total
• Exterior features: 2-acre lot; Public water; Not waterfront; No notable view

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 8
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Fireplace; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $464 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#438 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Floyd County (rural): math 13% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #157 of 165 in KY (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: South Floyd Elementary School (math 11% / reading 31%, grade F, #560 of 676 statewide, top 83%, 608 students, 84% FRL); Floyd Central High School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #158 of 254 statewide, top 68%, 552 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Floyd County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Floyd County population projected at -36% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $53,350 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.12%
• DSCR: 2.61
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $20,615
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.63×
• Total profit: $55,976
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41647

• Home prices YoY: -4.2%
• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,038 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $544/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$218
• Net cashflow: $464

Break-even live

Break-even rent $451

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $495	-5% $479	+0% $464	+5% $448	+10% $432
Rent	-10% $382	-5% $423	+0% $464	+5% $505	+10% $546
Rate	-1.0pp $491	-0.5pp $478	base $464	+0.5pp $449	+1.0pp $435

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $55,000 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $55,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $55,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $55,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $55,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $55,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 39 DOM
17. 2026-05-21
    price $55,000

    Show marketing remark (643 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath fixer upper with all the privacy you need. This property is eligible under the First Look Initiative. All owner occupant offers will be responded to after 7 days on the market and Investor offers will be responded to after 30 days. However, all offers can be submitted during the First Look period. All offers must be entered through propoffers.com. An offer management fee of $200 (plus tax, where applicable) is charged by Pyramid Platform in connection with the use of propoffers.com. This fee will be paid at closing from the agent representing the buyer as selling agent or transaction broker. Subject to seller addendum.

18. 2026-05-21
    price $55,000 643-char remark

    Show marketing remark (643 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath fixer upper with all the privacy you need. This property is eligible under the First Look Initiative. All owner occupant offers will be responded to after 7 days on the market and Investor offers will be responded to after 30 days. However, all offers can be submitted during the First Look period. All offers must be entered through propoffers.com. An offer management fee of $200 (plus tax, where applicable) is charged by Pyramid Platform in connection with the use of propoffers.com. This fee will be paid at closing from the agent representing the buyer as selling agent or transaction broker. Subject to seller addendum.

19. 2026-04-18
    listed $60,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (643 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath fixer upper with all the privacy you need. This property is eligible under the First Look Initiative. All owner occupant offers will be responded to after 7 days on the market and Investor offers will be responded to after 30 days. However, all offers can be submitted during the First Look period. All offers must be entered through propoffers.com. An offer management fee of $200 (plus tax, where applicable) is charged by Pyramid Platform in connection with the use of propoffers.com. This fee will be paid at closing from the agent representing the buyer as selling agent or transaction broker. Subject to seller addendum.

20. 2026-04-18
    listed $60,000 Active 643-char remark

    Show marketing remark (643 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath fixer upper with all the privacy you need. This property is eligible under the First Look Initiative. All owner occupant offers will be responded to after 7 days on the market and Investor offers will be responded to after 30 days. However, all offers can be submitted during the First Look period. All offers must be entered through propoffers.com. An offer management fee of $200 (plus tax, where applicable) is charged by Pyramid Platform in connection with the use of propoffers.com. This fee will be paid at closing from the agent representing the buyer as selling agent or transaction broker. Subject to seller addendum.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $544 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $544 · $45/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,460
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$544
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$997
• − Management: −$997
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $4,966
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,192
• After-tax cash flow: $4,371/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Floyd County
• NCES district ID: 2101950
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -25.00%
• Median HH income: $29,638
• Composite: 17.97/100
• National rank: #8988
• State rank: #157 of 165 in KY

Livability — McDowell

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #438
• US rank: #21540

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 196
• Population (ZIP): 1,105

Population outlook (Floyd County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,016 people
• By 2030: 30,683 · -7.1%
• By 2040: 25,378 · -23.1%
• By 2050: 21,013 · -36.4%
• By 2075: 14,361 · -56.5%
• By 2100: 10,464 · -68.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Black 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Floyd

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.2) · D 19.6% · R 78.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -57.9pp toward R · 2008: -1.3pp · 2024: -59.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.2 2020: R+51.2 2016: R+48.3 2012: R+33.9 2008: R+1.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.92%
• Current HPI: 90.5968
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $55,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $55,000 EKAR
• 2026-04-18 Listed $60,000 EKAR
• 2026-04-18 Listed $60,000 ImagineMLS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2023): $544 · +897.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.