119 Fay St

Buffalo, NY 14211

$160,000B+

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,506 sqft · Built 1935 · MultiFamily · Active · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,327/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $902/mo
• Annual: $10,828/yr
• Cap rate: 13.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.17%
• DSCR: 2.08
• 1% rule: 1.45%
• Cash to close: $44,800

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $902 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $155k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 172 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,327/mo this rent would consume 77% of the median local household income ($36k/yr) (locally 1804% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.