1816 County Road 2386

Winnsboro, TX 75471

$133,000B

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Built 1980 · Other · Pending · 123 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,864/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$697
• Tax + insurance: −$222
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $553/mo
• Annual: $6,642/yr
• Cap rate: 11.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.83%
• DSCR: 1.79
• 1% rule: 1.40%
• Cash to close: $37,240

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $133k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $553 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $133k).
• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $117k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($920 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#416 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Como-Pickton CISD (rural): math 39% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #441 of 826 in TX (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Hopkins County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hopkins County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $66k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (1.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $37k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 3.8% in Winnsboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.