1816 County Road 2386 · Winnsboro, TX 75471

$133,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Other public records · 123 Days on market

Built 1980 1.89 ac lot ↓ 56% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

MOTIVATED SELLERS!!! Discover the potential of this spacious three-bedroom, three-bath home situated on 3 peaceful acres. A circle driveway provides easy access to the property, which features two septic systems and water co-op service. Built on a slab foundation with a durable metal roof, this home offers a solid starting point for restoration. Inside, the entry opens to a generous foyer leading to a comfortable living area. The split floor plan separates the common living spaces from the private bedroom wing. The large primary suite includes an ensuite bath with dual walk-in closets, a soaking tub, separate shower, dual sinks, and an expansive vanity area. The kitchen offers abundant cabi

Key facts

• 1.89 acre lot
• Built 1980
• Listed 123 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 1.885 acres; Will not subdivide
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash or Conventional
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Circular driveway
• Utilities: Co-op electric; Co-op water; Electricity connected; Septic; Outside city limits; Gravel/rock access; Other utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property; Property not attached
• Construction: Built in 1980; Brick and rock/stone exterior; Metal roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Acreage lot; Utilities easement; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric cooktop; Electric double oven; Ice maker
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on main level)
• Flooring: Concrete; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Kitchen island; Wet bar; Other
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $133k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $553 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $133k).
• Recommended offer: $117k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 3.8% in Winnsboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#416 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Como-Pickton CISD (rural): math 39% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #441 of 826 in TX (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Hopkins County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($920 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.7% local appreciation)).
• Hopkins County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (1.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $37k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $66k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,040 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.83%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.7% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $42,409
• Equity at exit: $50,344

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.04×
• Total profit: $113,299
• Equity at exit: $70,904

Cash invested: $37,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75471

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,864 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$697
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$166 /mo · $1,995/yr
• Insurance: −$55
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $553

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,163

Max offer price $133,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $645	-5% $599	+0% $553	+5% $508	+10% $462
Rent	-10% $406	-5% $480	+0% $553	+5% $627	+10% $701
Rate	-1.0pp $620	-0.5pp $587	base $553	+0.5pp $519	+1.0pp $484

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,250
• Closing costs: $3,990
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-06
   price $133,000
3. 2026-03-13
   status Active
4. 2026-01-11
   status Pending
5. 2026-01-07
   price $150,000
6. 2025-10-28
   listed $199,000 Active
7. 2025-09-22
   historical
8. 2025-03-19
   price $249,900
9. 2025-03-19
   listed $300,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,369
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,450
• − Property taxes: −$1,995
• − Insurance: −$665
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,789
• − Management: −$1,789
• − Depreciation: −$3,869
• Taxable income: $4,810
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,155
• After-tax cash flow: $5,487/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Como-Pickton CISD
• NCES district ID: 4814880
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,477
• Composite: 33.14/100
• National rank: #5556
• State rank: #441 of 826 in TX

Livability — Winnsboro

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #416
• US rank: #8564

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,483

Population outlook (Hopkins County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,107 people
• By 2030: 38,867 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 40,009 · +5.0%
• By 2050: 40,448 · +6.1%
• By 2075: 40,669 · +6.7%
• By 2100: 37,234 · -2.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (54%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 22% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43%
• Common ancestry: English 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 19% Vietnamese 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hopkins

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.6) · D 17.4% · R 82.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -44.7pp · 2024: -64.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.6 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+60.8 2012: R+55.4 2008: R+44.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.70%
• Current HPI: 96.1162
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-55.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $133,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-13 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-01-11 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $150,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-28 Listed $199,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-19 Price Changed $249,900 HARMLS
• 2025-03-19 Listed $300,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

-3.9%/yr

Latest (2022): $100 · -7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.