288 Morris Ave

Long Branch, NJ 07740

$649,999C-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,522 sqft · Built 1905 · SingleFamily · Active · 168 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,167/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,409
• Tax + insurance: −$874
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,295
• Net cashflow: $589/mo
• Annual: $7,073/yr
• Cap rate: 7.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.89%
• DSCR: 1.17
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $182,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $650k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $589 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $617k (5.1% below list).
• It's been on market 168 days — a 12% lower offer ($572k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $572k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#243 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A-; Watch: amenities C-, schools D+, cost of living F.
• Long Branch Public School District (suburban): math 8% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #445 of 472 in NJ (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1905 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 247 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,840 units permitted in Monmouth County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monmouth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $200k; list at $650k implies a 225% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 0.3% in Long Branch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $6,167/mo this rent would consume 93% of the median local household income ($80k/yr) (locally 2347% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 168 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1905 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.