288 Morris Ave · Long Branch, NJ 07740

$649,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,522 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 168 Days on market

Built 1905 Est $858k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Two family property near all the redevelopment in Long Branch. This home has a great rent roll and the first floor unit was recently renovated with new kitchen, bathroom and floors. Great tenants in place and ready for the new owner.

Key facts

• Listed 168 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $650k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $589 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $617k (5.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $572k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 0.3% in Long Branch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#243 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A-; Watch: amenities C-, schools D+, cost of living F.
• Long Branch Public School District (suburban): math 8% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #445 of 472 in NJ (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 247 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,840 units permitted in Monmouth County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,167/mo this rent would consume 93% of the median local household income ($80k/yr) (locally 2347% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monmouth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 168 days — a 12% lower offer ($572k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $200k; list at $650k implies a 225% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1905 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $571,999 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 168 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1905 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.89%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $858,346
• List price: $649,999
• Delta: -24.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
399 Willow Ave	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (+3%)	4mo	$328,000	$209	75
298 Poole Ave	0.12mi	4/1.0	1,392 (-8%)	5mo	$525,000	$377	72
428 Willow Ave	0.32mi	4/1.5	1,566 (+3%)	12mo	$509,000	$325	68
537 Winter St	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,498 (-2%)	7mo	$499,000	$333	64
304 Hillside Ave	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,729 (+14%)	10mo	$400,000	$231	64
14 Slocum Pl	0.38mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,440 (-5%)	4mo	$357,000	$248	61
23 Woolley Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,497 (-2%)	3mo	$575,000	$384	61
441 Division St	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,332 (-12%)	11mo	$575,000	$432	52
214 Cleveland Ave	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,742 (+14%)	10mo	$618,000	$355	50
127 7th Ave	0.70mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,476 (-3%)	8mo	$550,000	$373	46
61 Pavilion Ave	0.48mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,704 (+12%)	6mo	$1,125,000	$660	45
42 Dudley St	0.47mi	4/1.5	1,734 (+14%)	11mo	$475,000	$274	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.91% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-62,127
• Equity at exit: $96,917

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $17,911
• Equity at exit: $56,200

Cash invested: $182,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07740

• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 247
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,167 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,409
• Tax from tax record: −$603 /mo · $7,239/yr
• Insurance: −$271
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,295
• Net cashflow: $589

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,421

Max offer price $649,999

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $162,500
• Closing costs: $19,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
179 Chelsea Ave Long Branch, NJ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1115	$5,300	$4.75	1d	6	0.36mi
8 Arthur Ave Long Branch, NJ	3.0	2.0	1648	$7,000	$4.25	18d	1	0.52mi
44 Norwood Ave Long Branch, NJ	3.0	1.0	1226	$3,275	$2.67	12d	1	0.58mi
50 Chelsea Ave Long Branch, NJ	3.0	1.0–2.0	1118	$6,286	$5.62	1d	34	0.64mi
350 Ocean Ave #403 Long Branch, NJ	3.0	3.0	1751	$20,000	$11.42	7d	1	0.64mi
376 W End Ave Long Branch, NJ	2.0–3.0	1.0	1720	$2,695	$1.57	7d	5	0.66mi
351 Hollywood Ave Long Branch, NJ	3.0	2.0	1590	$5,300	$3.33	1d	1	0.81mi
190 Spruce St #10 Long Branch, NJ	4.0	1.5	1690	$3,200	$1.89	17d	1	0.86mi
221 Brighton Ave #201 Long Branch, NJ	3.0	2.5	1768	$38,000	$21.49	24d	1	0.88mi
23 Hilltop Rd West Long Branch, NJ	3.0	2.0	1488	$28,000	$18.82	17d	1	0.88mi
607 McClellan St Long Branch, NJ	3.0	1.5	1344	$25,000	$18.60	10d	1	0.93mi
607 McClellan St Long Branch, NJ	3.0	2.5	1344	$4,200	$3.12	1d	1	0.93mi
132 Sampson Pl Long Branch, NJ	4.0	2.0	1570	$9,500	$6.05	24d	1	1.11mi
121 Riviera Dr Long Branch, NJ	3.0	2.5	2080	$3,400	$1.63	2d	1	1.12mi
45 Cedar Ave Unit B Long Branch, NJ	3.0	1.0	1788	$22,000	$12.30	4d	1	1.16mi
126 Elmwood Ave Long Branch, NJ	3.0	3.0	2160	$20,000	$9.26	24d	1	1.21mi
295 Jersey Ave Long Branch, NJ	5.0	3.0	2176	$75,000	$34.47	24d	1	1.23mi
70 Maryland Ave West Long Branch, NJ	3.0	1.5	1168	$2,400	$2.05	1d	1	1.25mi
68 Berry Pl Long Branch, NJ	3.0	2.0	1428	$3,200	$2.24	2d	1	1.27mi
17 Walnut Pl West Long Branch, NJ	4.0	2.0	1761	$4,500	$2.56	1d	1	1.29mi
81 Berry Pl Long Branch, NJ	4.0	1.5	1562	$12,000	$7.68	24d	1	1.30mi
132 Chelton Ave Long Branch, NJ	4.0	2.5	1828	$3,900	$2.13	7d	1	1.32mi
36 Community Dr West Long Branch, NJ	4.0	2.0	2202	$42,000	$19.07	22d	1	1.32mi
329 Yorke Ave Long Branch, NJ	4.0	2.0	1195	$44,000	$36.82	22d	1	1.35mi
479 Cedar Ave West Long Branch, NJ	3.0	1.5	1413	$33,000	$23.35	22d	1	1.40mi
125 Beechwood Ave West Long Branch, NJ	4.0	2.0	1560	$2,800	$1.79	1d	1	1.49mi
153 Atlantic Ave Long Branch, NJ	3.0	2.0	1500	$3,675	$2.45	7d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $649,999 Active 168 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $649,999 Active 167 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $649,999 Active 166 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $649,999 Active 165 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $649,999 Active 163 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $649,999 Active 162 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $649,999 Active 159 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $649,999 Active 158 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $649,999 Active 157 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $649,999 Active 154 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $649,999 Active 153 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $649,999 Active 152 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $649,999 Active 151 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $649,999 Active 150 DOM
15. 2026-04-22
    status Active 234-char remark

    Show marketing remark (234 chars)

    Two family property near all the redevelopment in Long Branch. This home has a great rent roll and the first floor unit was recently renovated with new kitchen, bathroom and floors. Great tenants in place and ready for the new owner.

16. 2026-03-19
    status Pending 234-char remark

    Show marketing remark (234 chars)

    Two family property near all the redevelopment in Long Branch. This home has a great rent roll and the first floor unit was recently renovated with new kitchen, bathroom and floors. Great tenants in place and ready for the new owner.

17. 2026-03-18
    price $649,999 234-char remark

    Show marketing remark (234 chars)

    Two family property near all the redevelopment in Long Branch. This home has a great rent roll and the first floor unit was recently renovated with new kitchen, bathroom and floors. Great tenants in place and ready for the new owner.

18. 2026-03-18
    status Active 234-char remark

    Show marketing remark (234 chars)

    Two family property near all the redevelopment in Long Branch. This home has a great rent roll and the first floor unit was recently renovated with new kitchen, bathroom and floors. Great tenants in place and ready for the new owner.

19. 2025-08-15
    price $599,999 234-char remark

    Show marketing remark (234 chars)

    Two family property near all the redevelopment in Long Branch. This home has a great rent roll and the first floor unit was recently renovated with new kitchen, bathroom and floors. Great tenants in place and ready for the new owner.

20. 2025-05-09
    listed $639,000 Active 234-char remark

    Show marketing remark (234 chars)

    Two family property near all the redevelopment in Long Branch. This home has a great rent roll and the first floor unit was recently renovated with new kitchen, bathroom and floors. Great tenants in place and ready for the new owner.

21. 2025-05-03
    historical $639,000 234-char remark

    Show marketing remark (234 chars)

    Two family property near all the redevelopment in Long Branch. This home has a great rent roll and the first floor unit was recently renovated with new kitchen, bathroom and floors. Great tenants in place and ready for the new owner.

22. 2015-10-01
    soldstatus $200,000
23. 1998-12-28
    soldstatus $71,800
24. 1997-11-17
    soldstatus $39,000
25. 1987-11-20
    soldstatus $102,000
26. 1985-02-01
    soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,239 · $603/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,712 · $976/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,473/yr (+$373/mo · 61.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $74,007
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,410
• − Property taxes: −$7,239
• − Insurance: −$3,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,921
• − Management: −$5,921
• − Depreciation: −$18,909
• Taxable loss: −$3,642
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$874
• After-tax cash flow: $7,947/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Long Branch Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3408940
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $51,405
• Composite: 15.49/100
• National rank: #9307
• State rank: #445 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Long Branch

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #243
• US rank: #6700

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute B- Cost of living F Crime B- Employment B- Housing B- Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Long Branch, NJ
• County: Monmouth County · 505,557 people
• City population: 32,917
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 32,917
• Household income: $79,870
• Rent vs Own: 57.4% rent · 42.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2347.0

Population outlook (Monmouth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 620,308 people
• By 2030: 612,309 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 587,297 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 551,342 · -11.1%
• By 2075: 472,934 · -23.8%
• By 2100: 381,534 · -38.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 12% Black 11% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Estonian 10% Russian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 15% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monmouth

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.4% · R 54.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -3.7pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: R+2.8 2016: R+9.5 2012: R+5.5 2008: R+3.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -655.16%
• Current HPI: 405.7286
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.91%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+1525.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2026-03-19 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $649,999 MOMLS
• 2026-03-18 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2025-08-15 Price Changed $599,999 MOMLS
• 2025-05-09 Listed $639,000 MOMLS
• 2025-05-03 Coming Soon $639,000 MOMLS
• 2015-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 1998-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $71,800 Public Records
• 1997-11-17 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records
• 1987-11-20 Sold (Public Records) $102,000 Public Records
• 1985-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,239 · +9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.