5618 Pecan Lake Rd

Little Rock, AR 72204

$199,900D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,719 sqft · Built 1976 · SingleFamily · Active · 68 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,715/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $56/mo
• Annual: $669/yr
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.20%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $56 ($669/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (14.2% below list).
• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $171k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#22 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Little Rock School District (urban): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #183 of 238 in AR (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mabelvale Middle School (math 7% / reading 10%, grade F, #197 of 201 statewide, top 98%, 569 students, 89% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 69% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 8% at this address vs 24% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Little Rock School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 187 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,006 units permitted in Pulaski County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pulaski County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.1% in Little Rock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $1,715/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($41k/yr) (locally 1553% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.