5618 Pecan Lake Rd · Little Rock, AR 72204

$199,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,719 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 68 Days on market

Built 1976 9,147 sqft lot ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 5618 Pecan Lake Rd, a comfortable family home on Tall Timber Lake in LR! This 4 BD/3 BA property offers spacious living w 3 BD/2 baths on the main level. Enjoy stunning lake views from both levels, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The home also features a cozy wood-burning fireplace, great indoor and outdoor spaces, and plenty of storage on both levels. Newly rebuilt back patio to relax on as you look over the peaceful lake in your backyard! With ample room for the whole family, this home is ready to be made yours. Schedule your tour today and see all it has to offer! Agents see remarks.

Key facts

• Plenty of storage
• Lake views
• 9,147 sq ft lot

Tags

• LAKE VIEWS
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• NEWLY REBUILT BACK PATIO
• INDOOR AND OUTDOOR SPACES
• PLENTY OF STORAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Accepts conventional loans and cash

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with automatic door opener
• Utilities: Public sewer; Public water; Municipal electric (Entergy); Natural gas
• Home design: Brick exterior; Inside city limits
• Construction: Composition roof; Slab/crawlspace combination foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Covered patio; Deck; Fully fenced yard; Chain link fence; Lake view; Lakefront access; Sloped and level areas; Located in a subdivision; Common access to lake; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing stove; Gas range; Dishwasher; Pantry; Refrigerator stays
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms with walk-in closet(s)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Tile; Luxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heat (gas); Central cooling (electric)
• Interior features: Washer connection; Dryer connection (electric); Window treatments; Walk-in closet(s); Built-ins; Ceiling fan(s); Walk-in shower; Breakfast bar; Formica kitchen countertops; Wood-burning site-built fireplace; Sheetrock walls; Wallpaper
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer connection; Dryer connection (electric)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $56 ($669/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (14.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $171k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.1% in Little Rock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#22 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Little Rock School District (urban): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #183 of 238 in AR (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mabelvale Middle School (math 7% / reading 10%, grade F, #197 of 201 statewide, top 98%, 569 students, 89% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 69% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 8% at this address vs 24% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Little Rock School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 187 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,006 units permitted in Pulaski County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,715/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($41k/yr) (locally 1553% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pulaski County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,457 (14.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.20%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.91% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-25,509
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-3,416
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72204

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 187
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,715 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$167 /mo · $2,006/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $56

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,644

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $169	-5% $112	+0% $56	+5% $-1	+10% $-57
Rent	-10% $-80	-5% $-12	+0% $56	+5% $123	+10% $191
Rate	-1.0pp $156	-0.5pp $107	base $56	+0.5pp $4	+1.0pp $-49

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8018 Mabelvale Pike Little Rock, AR	4.0	3.0	2500	$1,875	$0.75	45d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,900 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   status $199,900 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Price Change 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Price Change 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Price Change 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,900 Price Change 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   pricestatusdays on market $199,900 Price Change 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $230,000 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $230,000 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $230,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $230,000 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $230,000 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $230,000 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $230,000 Active 48 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $230,000 Active 47 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $230,000 Active 46 DOM
18. 2026-05-21
    status Back on Market
19. 2026-04-21
    historical Take Backups
20. 2026-04-14
    listed $230,000 New Listing
21. 2025-09-15
    historical
22. 2025-08-08
    price $230,000
23. 2025-04-04
    price $253,000
24. 2025-03-14
    listed $255,000 New Listing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,006 · $167/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,006 · $167/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,575
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,006
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,646
• − Management: −$1,646
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$2,736
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$657
• After-tax cash flow: $1,325/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Little Rock School District
• NCES district ID: 0509000
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $43,346
• Composite: 21.0/100
• National rank: #8457
• State rank: #183 of 238 in AR

Livability — Little Rock

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #22
• US rank: #5295

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Little Rock, AR
• County: Pulaski County · 372,764 people
• City population: 218,896
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• Population (ZIP): 30,525
• Household income: $40,882
• Rent vs Own: 41.5% rent · 58.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1553.0

Population outlook (Pulaski County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,378 people
• By 2030: 423,720 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 435,182 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 440,904 · +6.1%
• By 2075: 445,521 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 419,173 · +0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 66% White 18% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pulaski

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.1) · D 59.8% · R 37.7% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: 11.6pp · 2024: 22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.1 2020: D+22.5 2016: D+17.9 2012: D+11.4 2008: D+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.17%
• Current HPI: 172.3977
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.91%
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-9.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $230,000 CARMLS
• 2025-09-15 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-08-08 Price Changed $230,000 CARMLS
• 2025-04-04 Price Changed $253,000 CARMLS
• 2025-03-14 Listed $255,000 CARMLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,006 · +8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.