3829 Lake Ave

Ashtabula, OH 44004

$169,900C+

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,145 sqft · Built 1907 · MultiFamily · Active · 134 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,970/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$624
• Net cashflow: $1,337/mo
• Annual: $16,046/yr
• Cap rate: 15.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.73%
• DSCR: 2.50
• 1% rule: 1.75%
• Cash to close: $47,572

Investor read

• This is a 1×3bd/1ba + 1×2bd/1ba + 1×1bd/1ba units multifamily listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive. Per door: $446/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $170k).
• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $150k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#420 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Ashtabula Area City (town): math 24% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #588 of 656 in OH (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1907 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 169 active listings in the ZIP; 155 units permitted in Ashtabula County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ashtabula County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 15.7% vs local median 8.2% in Ashtabula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,970/mo this rent would consume 72% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1907 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.