3829 Lake Ave · Ashtabula, OH 44004

$169,900

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,145 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 134 Days on market

Built 1907 0.39 ac lot Est $135k · 26% over ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 3 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Calling All Investors! Don’t miss this income-producing opportunity at 3829 Lake Avenue in Ashtabula! This triplex features three units: a 3 bed / 1 bath, 2 bed / 1 bath, and 1 bed / 1 bath — offering strong rental potential right from the start. Tenants in place who would love to stay Currently Section 8 approved Immediate cash-flow opportunity Just needs some TLC and updates to maximize value Whether you’re looking to expand your portfolio or jump into investing, this property is full of potential.

Key facts

• 0.39 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1907

Tags

• INCOME PRODUCING OPPORTUNITY
• STRONG RENTAL POTENTIAL
• CASH FLOW OPPORTUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1×3bd/1ba + 1×2bd/1ba + 1×1bd/1ba units multifamily listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive. Per door: $446/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.7% vs local median 8.2% in Ashtabula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#420 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Ashtabula Area City (town): math 24% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #588 of 656 in OH (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 169 active listings in the ZIP; 155 units permitted in Ashtabula County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,970/mo this rent would consume 72% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ashtabula County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1907 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $149,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1907 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.73%
• DSCR: 2.50
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $134,698
• List price: $169,900
• Delta: 26.13%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
863 W Prospect Cir	0.57mi	5/2.0	2,085 (-3%)	6mo	$130,000	$62	60
5105 Chestnut Ave	0.75mi	5/2.0	2,072 (-3%)	8mo	$140,000	$68	49
516 W 46th St	0.49mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,030 (-5%)	19mo	$150,000	$74	47
434 Center St	0.56mi	5/2.0	2,376 (+11%)	9mo	$145,500	$61	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $57,575
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.35×
• Total profit: $159,566
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44004

• Home prices YoY: -30.5%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,970 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $569/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$624
• Net cashflow: $1,337

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,277

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,433	-5% $1,385	+0% $1,337	+5% $1,289	+10% $1,241
Rent	-10% $1,103	-5% $1,220	+0% $1,337	+5% $1,454	+10% $1,572
Rate	-1.0pp $1,423	-0.5pp $1,380	base $1,337	+0.5pp $1,293	+1.0pp $1,248

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	3	1	$1,220
1× unit	2	1	$875
1× unit	1	1	$875
Total (3 units)			$2,970

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $169,900 Active 134 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 132 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 131 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 130 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 129 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 127 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $169,900 Active 126 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,900 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,900 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,900 Active 121 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,900 Active 120 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $169,900 Active 117 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,900 Active 116 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,900 Active 115 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 114 DOM
16. 2026-04-08
    price $169,900 532-char remark

    Show marketing remark (532 chars)

    Calling All Investors! Don’t miss this income-producing opportunity at 3829 Lake Avenue in Ashtabula! This triplex features three units: a 3 bed / 1 bath, 2 bed / 1 bath, and 1 bed / 1 bath — offering strong rental potential right from the start. Tenants in place who would love to stay Currently Section 8 approved Immediate cash-flow opportunity Just needs some TLC and updates to maximize value Whether you’re looking to expand your portfolio or jump into investing, this property is full of potential.

17. 2026-02-06
    listed $179,900 Active 532-char remark

    Show marketing remark (532 chars)

    Calling All Investors! Don’t miss this income-producing opportunity at 3829 Lake Avenue in Ashtabula! This triplex features three units: a 3 bed / 1 bath, 2 bed / 1 bath, and 1 bed / 1 bath — offering strong rental potential right from the start. Tenants in place who would love to stay Currently Section 8 approved Immediate cash-flow opportunity Just needs some TLC and updates to maximize value Whether you’re looking to expand your portfolio or jump into investing, this property is full of potential.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $569 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,610 · $134/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,041/yr (+$87/mo · 183.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,640
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$569
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,851
• − Management: −$2,851
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable income: $14,060
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,374
• After-tax cash flow: $12,671/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ashtabula Area City
• NCES district ID: 3904351
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $34,812
• Composite: 24.3/100
• National rank: #7712
• State rank: #588 of 656 in OH

Livability — Ashtabula

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #420
• US rank: #6883

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ashtabula, OH
• County: Ashtabula · 97,617 people
• City population: 31,076
• Metro: Cleveland, OH
• Population (ZIP): 31,076
• Household income: $49,507
• Rent vs Own: 32.7% rent · 67.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 14.1

Population outlook (Ashtabula County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 92,950 people
• By 2030: 89,146 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 80,715 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 72,270 · -22.2%
• By 2075: 55,780 · -40.0%
• By 2100: 40,928 · -56.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Ashtabula

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.4% · R 63.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.9pp toward R · 2008: 13.5pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+23.5 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.51%
• Current HPI: 260.7146
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

-5.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $169,900 MLSNOW
• 2026-02-06 Listed $179,900 MLSNOW

Property tax history

-5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $569 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.