2909 Twilley Dr

Rancho Cordova, CA 95827

$80,000C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Built 1981 · Manufactured · Active · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,740/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax + insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $822/mo
• Annual: $9,864/yr
• Cap rate: 18.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.03%
• DSCR: 2.96
• 1% rule: 2.18%
• Cash to close: $22,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $822 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $78k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#268 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B; Watch: commute C-, crime D, cost of living F.
• Sacramento City Unified (urban): math 32% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #804 of 1,400 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Leonardo Da Vinci (797 students, 35% FRL); Albert Einstein Middle (671 students, 74% FRL); Rosemont High (1,514 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 112 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 18.6% vs local median 3.0% in Rancho Cordova — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.