2909 Twilley Dr · Rancho Cordova, CA 95827

$80,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured · 37 Days on market

Built 1981 $100/sqft · 25% above area Est $64k · 25% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this newly remodeled double-wide mobile home located in the heart of Sacramento with convenient access to the Highway 50 corridor. This move-in ready home features a bright, modern interior with numerous upgrades throughout. Step inside to discover fresh interior paint, stylish laminate flooring, and brand-new carpet that create a clean and welcoming atmosphere. The updated kitchen boasts modern finishes, upgraded countertops, and plenty of cabinet spaceperfect for cooking and entertaining. New dual-pane windows provide abundant natural light while improving energy efficiency and comfort. The spacious layout offers comfortable living areas, generously sized bedrooms, and a f

Key facts

• Upgraded countertops
• Dual-pane windows
• Modern finishes

Tags

• NEWLY REMODELED
• DOUBLE-WIDE MOBILE HOME
• MODERN FINISHES
• UPGRADED COUNTERTOPS
• DUAL-PANE WINDOWS
• SPACIOUS LAYOUT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Manufacture/Make: 7239 Commodore HM Sys Inc.
• Financial info: Land lease amount field present but property indicates no land lease
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community; No land lease

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned covered parking
• Utilities: Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; 220 volts available in laundry; Public sewer; Water provided by water district
• Home design: Manufactured home located in a park; Double-wide model; Built in 1981
• Construction: Aluminum skirting; Other-type roof
• Exterior features: Backyard

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas range; Free standing refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom with tub and shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Window unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Great room living area; Breakfast area; Stone counters; Kitchen/family and dining combos provide flexible dining space; Pets allowed
• Laundry & utility: Stacked washer and dryer included; Indoor laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $822 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.6% vs local median 3.0% in Rancho Cordova — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#268 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools C-, commute C-, crime D.
• Sacramento City Unified (urban): math 32% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #804 of 1,400 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 112 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,600 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.03%
• DSCR: 2.96
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $64,006
• List price: $80,000
• Delta: 24.99%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2902 Routier Rd #7	0.08mi	2/1.5	784 (-2%)	7mo	$90,000	$115	85
2926 Poole Dr #25	0.03mi	2/2.0	756 (-6%)	5mo	$64,000	$85	81
2927 Twilley Dr #33	0.04mi	2/1.0	843 (+5%)	17mo	$86,000	$102	75
2904 Poole Dr	0.02mi	2/1.0	697 (-13%)	3mo	$55,000	$79	75
10035 Mills Station Rd #71	0.29mi	2/1.0	720 (-10%)	4mo	$34,500	$48	66
10035 Mills Station Rd #73	0.34mi	2/2.0	852 (+6%)	8mo	$100,000	$117	62
10035 Mills Station Rd #60	0.34mi	2/1.0	720 (-10%)	7mo	$78,000	$108	62
10035 Mills Station Rd #39	0.34mi	2/1.0	720 (-10%)	9mo	$60,000	$83	60
10035 Mills Station Rd #157	0.34mi	2/1.0	720 (-10%)	10mo	$65,000	$90	59
10035 Mills Station Rd #122	0.30mi	2/1.0	720 (-10%)	15mo	$46,500	$65	57
10035 Mills Station Rd #11	0.34mi	2/1.0	684 (-14%)	10mo	$92,500	$135	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $38,388
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.32×
• Total profit: $96,781
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95827

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,740 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,200/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $822

Break-even live

Break-even rent $700

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $877	-5% $850	+0% $822	+5% $794	+10% $767
Rent	-10% $684	-5% $753	+0% $822	+5% $891	+10% $959
Rate	-1.0pp $862	-0.5pp $842	base $822	+0.5pp $801	+1.0pp $780

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2929 Routier Rd Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	790	$1,995	$2.53	0d	10	0.18mi
2080 W La Loma Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0	1.0	587	$1,395	$2.37	45d	2	0.31mi
2080 W La Loma Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	650	$1,645	$2.53	19d	3	0.31mi
2729 El Parque Cir Unit 3 Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,350	$2.25	25d	1	0.43mi
2590 Capitales Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0	1.0	559	$1,495	$2.67	13d	1	0.44mi
2590 Capitales Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0	1.0	559	$1,495	$2.67	16d	1	0.44mi
2590 Capitales Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0	1.0	559	$1,495	$2.67	21d	2	0.44mi
2725 El Parque Cir Unit A Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,495	$1.87	45d	1	0.45mi
2850 La Loma Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	1.0	920	$1,800	$1.96	9d	1	0.50mi
2625 El Parque Cir Unit D Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	1.0	880	$1,800	$2.05	45d	1	0.52mi
3329 Routier Rd Unit 3329 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	979	$2,000	$2.04	45d	1	0.56mi
10108 Malaga Way Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	1.0	765	$1,776	$2.32	9d	1	0.60mi
10169 Crawford Way Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	917	$2,150	$2.34	25d	1	0.64mi
10181 De Soto Way Unit 10181 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	917	$1,950	$2.13	4d	1	0.70mi
10158 De Soto Way Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,000	$2.22	17d	1	0.73mi
10281 Mills Station Rd Unit 12 Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,200	$2.00	5d	1	0.74mi
2961 Portsmouth Dr Unit 4 Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	1.5	900	$1,650	$1.83	13d	1	0.77mi
3250 Laurelhurst Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$2,275	$2.24	3d	6	0.77mi
3226 Laurelhurst Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,900	$1.88	25d	1	0.84mi
10335 White Rock Rd Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	625	$1,450	$2.32	12d	2	0.88mi
10401 Rockingham Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	714	$1,450	$2.03	9d	6	0.89mi
10407 White Rock Rd Unit B Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,000	$2.00	45d	1	1.00mi
10069 Lincoln Village Dr Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	882	$2,049	$2.32	5d	1	1.02mi
10421 El Mercado Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	702	$1,651	$2.35	0d	1	1.02mi
10460 El Mercado Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0	1.0	626	$1,295	$2.07	0d	1	1.13mi
3060 Laurelhurst Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0	1.0	650	$1,395	$2.15	45d	1	1.15mi
3545 Mather Field Rd Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	1.0	604	$1,775	$2.94	0d	5	1.18mi
2416 Moraine Cir Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0	1.0	710	$1,188	$1.67	17d	2	1.19mi
10240 S White Rock Rd Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	1.0	802	$1,500	$1.87	45d	1	1.21mi
9849 Lincoln Village Dr Unit A Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,995	$1.81	45d	1	1.26mi
3466 Data Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	955	$2,411	$2.52	3d	8	1.28mi
9838 Lincoln Village Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	732	$1,638	$2.24	0d	5	1.33mi
10498 Mills Tower Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	1.0	810	$1,900	$2.35	25d	1	1.37mi
10515 Mills Tower Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	665	$1,495	$2.25	12d	1	1.44mi
9551 Butterfield Way Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	716	$1,699	$2.37	12d	1	1.48mi
9551 Butterfield Way Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	716	$1,725	$2.41	16d	1	1.48mi
9551 Butterfield Way Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	966	$2,150	$2.23	21d	1	1.48mi
9551 Butterfield Way Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	716	$1,699	$2.37	45d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $80,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $80,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $80,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $80,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 16 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 35 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,884
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,200
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,671
• − Management: −$1,671
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $9,134
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,192
• After-tax cash flow: $7,672/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sacramento City Unified
• NCES district ID: 0633840
• Math proficiency: 32% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $49,280
• Composite: 34.86/100
• National rank: #10000
• State rank: #804 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Rancho Cordova

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #9126

Category grades

Amenities C Commute C- Cost of living F Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rancho Cordova, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 98,329
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 21,742
• Household income: $85,841
• Rent vs Own: 36.7% rent · 63.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 949.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 13% Two or more races 12% Asian 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Subsaharan African 5% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 14% Russian/Polish/Slavic 10% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -223.22%
• Current HPI: 349.4168
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B