3181 Carefree Ln Unit A

Florissant, MO 63033

$76,000A

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 870 sqft · Built 1968 · Condo · Active · 89 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,327/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$399
• Tax + insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$275
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $276/mo
• Annual: $3,311/yr
• Cap rate: 10.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.56%
• DSCR: 1.69
• 1% rule: 1.75%
• Cash to close: $21,280

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $76k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $276 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $76k).
• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($71k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $71k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($525 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#82 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Ferguson-Florissant R-II (suburban): math 7% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #311 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Halls Ferry Elementary (math 7% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,003 of 1,115 statewide, top 90%, 346 students, 99% FRL); Cross Keys Middle (math 5% / reading 10%, grade F, #379 of 391 statewide, top 97%, 625 students, 100% FRL); Mccluer North High (math 5% / reading 28%, grade F, #487 of 521 statewide, top 93%, 1,136 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 70% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 300 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 47d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 7 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $76k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 6.4% in Florissant — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.