3181 Carefree Ln Unit A · Florissant, MO 63033

$76,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 870 sqft · Condo public records · 89 Days on market

Built 1968 $87/sqft · 9% below area Est $83k · 9% under $275/mo HOA · 21% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.5/30.0
• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Conveniently located condo in Leisure Village in the heart of Florissant With Florissant amenities * you will love the new easy to care for flooring * Spacious layout with an open floor plan for the living room / dining room combo and a breakfast bar. Patio accessible from both the kitchen and bedroom. Enjoy the convenience of ground-floor living, in a well-maintained community close to shopping, dining, and public transportation! This unit has 2 assigned parking spots in front of the unit, which make it easy to enter form the front door or the patio door, your choice. Storage and laundry in the building, right outside your front door* Seller is replacing the eclectic box before closing *Hurry to get this affordable home* ask listing agent about some lenders with great financing options or seller may consider financing with the right buyer ( terms to depend on buyer)

Key facts

• $275 HOA
• Built 1968
• Listed 88 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $76k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $273 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $76k).
• Recommended offer: $71k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 6.3% in Florissant — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#82 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, schools D.
• Ferguson-Florissant R-II (suburban): math 7% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #311 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($525 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($71k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $76k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $71,440 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.37%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $83,361
• List price: $76,000
• Delta: -8.83%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.06×
• Total profit: $65,202
• Equity at exit: $68,467

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.5%
• Equity multiple: 10.11×
• Total profit: $193,946
• Equity at exit: $147,651

Cash invested: $21,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63033

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,323 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$399
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $805/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$275
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $273

Break-even live

Break-even rent $978

Max offer price $76,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,000
• Closing costs: $2,280
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3209 Cross Keys Dr Florissant, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	700	$1,100	$1.57	1d	1	0.21mi
2990 Santiago Dr Florissant, MO	2.0	2.0	984	$1,200	$1.22	43d	1	0.21mi
3144 Sunswept Pk Ct Florissant, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	818	$1,088	$1.33	1d	12	0.60mi
4112 Monsols Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,945	$1.74	43d	1	1.21mi
1983 Greenheath Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,331	$1.28	2d	1	1.23mi
1710 Kay Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,500	$1.56	1d	1	1.36mi
330 Moule Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,575	$1.55	43d	1	1.42mi
1045 N New Florissant Rd Florissant, MO	2.0	1.0	783	$1,250	$1.60	14d	1	1.46mi
1004 N New Florissant Rd Florissant, MO	2.0	1.0	719	$1,375	$1.91	23d	1	1.46mi
4583 Whisper Lake Dr Black Jack, MO	1.0–5.0	1.0–2.5	1225	$958	$0.78	1d	17	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $275 · $3,300/yr
• Likely covers: parking
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-13
   days on market $76,000 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $76,000 Active 88 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $76,000 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $76,000 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $76,000 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $76,000 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $76,000 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $76,000 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $76,000 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $76,000 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-03-17
    listed $76,000 Active 881-char remark

    Show marketing remark (881 chars)

    Conveniently located condo in Leisure Village in the heart of Florissant With Florissant amenities * you will love the new easy to care for flooring * Spacious layout with an open floor plan for the living room / dining room combo and a breakfast bar. Patio accessible from both the kitchen and bedroom. Enjoy the convenience of ground-floor living, in a well-maintained community close to shopping, dining, and public transportation! This unit has 2 assigned parking spots in front of the unit, which make it easy to enter form the front door or the patio door, your choice. Storage and laundry in the building, right outside your front door* Seller is replacing the eclectic box before closing *Hurry to get this affordable home* ask listing agent about some lenders with great financing options or seller may consider financing with the right buyer ( terms to depend on buyer)

12. 2026-03-15
    historical $76,000 881-char remark

    Show marketing remark (881 chars)

    Conveniently located condo in Leisure Village in the heart of Florissant With Florissant amenities * you will love the new easy to care for flooring * Spacious layout with an open floor plan for the living room / dining room combo and a breakfast bar. Patio accessible from both the kitchen and bedroom. Enjoy the convenience of ground-floor living, in a well-maintained community close to shopping, dining, and public transportation! This unit has 2 assigned parking spots in front of the unit, which make it easy to enter form the front door or the patio door, your choice. Storage and laundry in the building, right outside your front door* Seller is replacing the eclectic box before closing *Hurry to get this affordable home* ask listing agent about some lenders with great financing options or seller may consider financing with the right buyer ( terms to depend on buyer)

13. 2025-10-02
    price $72,000
14. 2025-08-01
    status Active
15. 2025-08-01
    price $73,900
16. 2025-06-04
    price $74,999
17. 2025-01-01
    listed $79,000 Active
18. 2024-01-05
    price $79,000
19. 2019-12-30
    soldstatus $40,000
20. 2019-12-26
    soldstatus Closed
21. 2019-12-15
    status Pending
22. 2019-10-18
    listed $44,900 Active
23. 2018-05-10
    soldstatus Closed
24. 2018-05-10
    soldstatus $42,000
25. 2018-03-19
    status Pending
26. 2017-10-02
    price $44,995
27. 2017-09-05
    status Active
28. 2017-08-31
    historical
29. 2017-01-23
    listed $49,900 Active
30. 2016-10-27
    soldstatus $44,900
31. 2016-10-20
    soldstatus Closed
32. 2016-10-07
    status Pending
33. 2016-09-19
    listed $44,900 Active
34. 1983-10-01
    soldstatus $39,250
35. 1983-10-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $805 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $805 · $67/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,872
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,257
• − Property taxes: −$805
• − Insurance: −$380
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,270
• − Management: −$1,270
• − HOA: −$3,300
• − Depreciation: −$2,211
• Taxable income: $2,380
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$571
• After-tax cash flow: $2,700/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ferguson-Florissant R-II
• NCES district ID: 2912010
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,610
• Composite: 11.96/100
• National rank: #9666
• State rank: #311 of 324 in MO

Livability — Florissant

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #82
• US rank: #5406

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Florissant, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 69,104
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 43,056
• Household income: $66,776
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1429.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 23% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.78%
• Current HPI: 570.6
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+93.6% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Listed $76,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-15 Coming Soon $76,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $72,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-01 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $73,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-04 Price Changed $74,999 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-01 Listed $79,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-05 Price Changed $79,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 2019-12-26 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-15 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-18 Listed $44,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-10 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records
• 2018-05-10 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-19 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-02 Price Changed $44,995 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-09-05 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-08-31 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-23 Listed $49,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $44,900 Public Records
• 2016-10-20 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-07 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-19 Listed $44,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1983-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1983-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $39,250 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2022): $805 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.