529 2nd St E

Centralia, IL 62801

$29,500B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,349 sqft · Built 1923 · Other · Active · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $800/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$155
• Tax + insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$168
• Net cashflow: $364/mo
• Annual: $4,367/yr
• Cap rate: 21.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.87%
• DSCR: 3.35
• 1% rule: 2.71%
• Cash to close: $8,260

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $30k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $364 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($800 rent vs $30k).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($29k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $29k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $204 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $885 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#481 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Centralia Hsd 200 (town): math 21% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #668 of 919 in IL (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Centralia High School (math 22% / reading 17%, grade F, #397 of 693 statewide, top 61%, 863 students, 0% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.1% of price; built in 1923 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marion County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 21.1% vs local median 5.8% in Centralia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1923 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.