529 2nd St E · Centralia, IL 62801

$29,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,349 sqft · Other public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1923 3,600 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This property is a prime high-equity opportunity for investors looking for a high-margin project in Centralia. Priced significantly below market value with a clear path to a substantial After Repair Value (ARV), this "handyman special" is ideal for a fix-and-flip or a long-term rental strategy.

Key facts

• 3600 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1923

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with space for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Single-phase electric; Electricity available; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Frame construction; Architectural shingle roof
• Exterior features: Back yard; Chain link fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes oven and refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central air
• Interior features: Oven; Refrigerator; Unfinished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $364 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($800 rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $29k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.1% vs local median 5.9% in Centralia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#481 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Centralia Hsd 200 (town): math 21% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #668 of 919 in IL (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Centralia High School (math 22% / reading 17%, grade F, #397 of 693 statewide, top 61%, 863 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $204 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $885 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($29k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.1% of price; built in 1923 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $29,057 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1923 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.87%
• DSCR: 3.35
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.23×
• Total profit: $18,449
• Equity at exit: $4,399

10-year hold

• IRR: 56.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.58×
• Total profit: $46,120
• Equity at exit: $2,551

Cash invested: $8,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62801

• Home prices YoY: -13.9%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$155
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,213/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$168
• Net cashflow: $364

Break-even live

Break-even rent $339

Max offer price $29,500

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $381	-5% $372	+0% $364	+5% $356	+10% $347
Rent	-10% $301	-5% $332	+0% $364	+5% $396	+10% $427
Rate	-1.0pp $379	-0.5pp $371	base $364	+0.5pp $356	+1.0pp $348

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,375
• Closing costs: $885
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
805 S Hickory St Centralia, IL	3.0	2.0	1814	$800	$0.44	44d	1	0.80mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $29,500 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $29,500 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $29,500 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $29,500 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,500 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,500 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $39,500 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,500 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,500 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,500 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 295-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $39,500 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,213 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,213 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,652
• − Property taxes: −$1,213
• − Insurance: −$148
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$768
• − Management: −$768
• − Depreciation: −$858
• Taxable income: $4,193
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,006
• After-tax cash flow: $3,361/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Centralia Hsd 200
• NCES district ID: 1709300
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $34,555
• Composite: 22.43/100
• National rank: #13470
• State rank: #668 of 919 in IL

Livability — Centralia

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #481
• US rank: #9987

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Centralia, IL
• City population: 19,941
• Population (ZIP): 19,941

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,071 people
• By 2030: 34,598 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 31,754 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 28,912 · -19.8%
• By 2075: 22,527 · -37.5%
• By 2100: 16,455 · -54.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 11% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.5) · D 24.6% · R 74.1% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -47.5pp toward R · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: -49.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.5 2020: R+46.6 2016: R+44.9 2012: R+19.2 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.12%
• Current HPI: 211.3835
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $39,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-08-01 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-08-01 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,213 · -3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.