71 Slatelick Branch Rd

Louisa, KY 41230

$82,000B-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,156 sqft · Built 1994 · SingleFamily · Pending · 50 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,292/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$430
• Tax + insurance: −$210
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $380/mo
• Annual: $4,565/yr
• Cap rate: 12.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.36%
• DSCR: 2.04
• 1% rule: 1.58%
• Cash to close: $22,960

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $82k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $380 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $82k).
• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $80k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($567 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (7.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#381 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lawrence County (town): math 23% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #95 of 165 in KY (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP.
• Lawrence County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (7.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 3.9% in Louisa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.