71 Slatelick Branch Rd · Louisa, KY 41230

$82,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,156 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1994 3.40 ac lot $38/sqft · 24% above area Est $65k · 27% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Farmhouse situated on approximately 3.4 acres and backing up to wooded acreage. The property is accessed by crossing a creek bridge. The home offers 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, with the primary bedroom located on the first floor. Additional features include an eat-in kitchen and a fireplace.

Key facts

• Eat-in kitchen
• Fireplace
• 3.4 acre lot

Tags

• APPROXIMATELY 3.4 ACRES
• BACKING UP TO WOODED ACREAGE
• CROSSING A CREEK BRIDGE
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $82k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $380 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $82k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 3.9% in Louisa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#381 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lawrence County (town): math 23% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #95 of 165 in KY (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($567 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (7.2% local appreciation)).
• Lawrence County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,540 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.36%
• DSCR: 2.04
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $64,772
• List price: $82,000
• Delta: 26.60%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
71 Slatelick Branch Rd	0.00mi	4/2.0	2,106 (-2%)	0mo	$77,000	$37	96

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.34×
• Total profit: $53,765
• Equity at exit: $57,714

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.02×
• Total profit: $138,202
• Equity at exit: $110,446

Cash invested: $22,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41230

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,292 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$430
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,314/yr
• Insurance: −$34
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $380

Break-even live

Break-even rent $810

Max offer price $82,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,500
• Closing costs: $2,460
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $82,000 Pending 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $82,000 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $82,000 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $82,000 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $82,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $82,000 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-05-14
   price $82,000 297-char remark

   Show marketing remark (297 chars)

   Farmhouse situated on approximately 3.4 acres and backing up to wooded acreage. The property is accessed by crossing a creek bridge. The home offers 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, with the primary bedroom located on the first floor. Additional features include an eat-in kitchen and a fireplace.

8. 2026-05-13
   status Active 297-char remark

   Show marketing remark (297 chars)

   Farmhouse situated on approximately 3.4 acres and backing up to wooded acreage. The property is accessed by crossing a creek bridge. The home offers 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, with the primary bedroom located on the first floor. Additional features include an eat-in kitchen and a fireplace.

9. 2026-03-28
   status Pending 297-char remark

   Show marketing remark (297 chars)

   Farmhouse situated on approximately 3.4 acres and backing up to wooded acreage. The property is accessed by crossing a creek bridge. The home offers 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, with the primary bedroom located on the first floor. Additional features include an eat-in kitchen and a fireplace.

10. 2026-03-13
    price $85,500 297-char remark

    Show marketing remark (297 chars)

    Farmhouse situated on approximately 3.4 acres and backing up to wooded acreage. The property is accessed by crossing a creek bridge. The home offers 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, with the primary bedroom located on the first floor. Additional features include an eat-in kitchen and a fireplace.

11. 2026-02-11
    price $89,900 297-char remark

    Show marketing remark (297 chars)

    Farmhouse situated on approximately 3.4 acres and backing up to wooded acreage. The property is accessed by crossing a creek bridge. The home offers 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, with the primary bedroom located on the first floor. Additional features include an eat-in kitchen and a fireplace.

12. 2026-02-05
    listed $98,000 Active 297-char remark

    Show marketing remark (297 chars)

    Farmhouse situated on approximately 3.4 acres and backing up to wooded acreage. The property is accessed by crossing a creek bridge. The home offers 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, with the primary bedroom located on the first floor. Additional features include an eat-in kitchen and a fireplace.

13. 2026-01-06
    price $98,000
14. 2025-11-26
    price $102,700
15. 2025-10-27
    price $107,900
16. 2025-10-10
    listed $115,000 Active
17. 2025-09-29
    price $115,000
18. 2025-08-28
    price $122,000
19. 2025-08-01
    price $129,000
20. 2025-06-30
    price $134,900
21. 2025-05-29
    listed $139,900 Active
22. 2019-03-08
    soldstatus $110,000
23. 2019-03-08
    soldstatus $110,000
24. 2017-08-09
    listed $120,000
25. 2016-02-19
    soldstatus $64,000
26. 2004-01-17
    soldstatus $64,000
27. 1996-06-01
    soldstatus $62,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,314 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,314 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,503
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,593
• − Property taxes: −$1,314
• − Insurance: −$1,208
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,240
• − Management: −$1,240
• − Depreciation: −$2,385
• Taxable income: $3,522
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$845
• After-tax cash flow: $3,720/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawrence County
• NCES district ID: 2103240
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $32,668
• Composite: 26.55/100
• National rank: #7189
• State rank: #95 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisa

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #381
• US rank: #18153

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,399

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,462 people
• By 2030: 15,038 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 14,142 · -8.5%
• By 2050: 13,292 · -14.0%
• By 2075: 11,353 · -26.6%
• By 2100: 9,417 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Asian 2% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.2) · D 15.9% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.3pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -67.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.2 2020: R+63.2 2016: R+62.5 2012: R+44.3 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.17%
• Current HPI: 177.9918
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+32.3% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $82,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-05-13 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2026-03-28 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $85,500 ImagineMLS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $89,900 ImagineMLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $98,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $98,000 AABOR
• 2025-11-26 Price Changed $102,700 AABOR
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $107,900 AABOR
• 2025-10-10 Listed $115,000 AABOR
• 2025-09-29 Price Changed $115,000 EKAR
• 2025-08-28 Price Changed $122,000 EKAR
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $129,000 EKAR
• 2025-06-30 Price Changed $134,900 EKAR
• 2025-05-29 Listed $139,900 EKAR
• 2019-03-08 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2019-03-08 Sold (MLS) $110,000 AABOR
• 2017-08-09 Listed $120,000 AABOR
• 2016-02-19 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records
• 2004-01-17 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records
• 1996-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,314 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.