20 Oak Ln

Lake Sumner, NM 88119

$65,000B

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,096 sqft · Built 1700 · Other · Active · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $955/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax + insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$201
• Net cashflow: $360/mo
• Annual: $4,318/yr
• Cap rate: 12.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.73%
• DSCR: 2.06
• 1% rule: 1.47%
• Cash to close: $18,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $65k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $360 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($955 rent vs $65k).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#58 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Fort Sumner Municipal Schools (rural): math 25% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #18 of 95 in NM (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fort Sumner Elementary (math 24% / reading 64%, grade F, #30 of 68 statewide, top 43%, 116 students, 100% FRL); Fort Sumner Middle (math 27% / reading 62%, grade D, #4 of 27 statewide, top 12%, 82 students, 100% FRL); Fort Sumner High (math 75% / reading 75%, grade A-, #10 of 110 statewide, top 15%, 75 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 53% district-wide (47 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 55% at this address vs 38% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Fort Sumner Municipal Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1700 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP.
• De Baca County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1700 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.