20 Oak Ln · Lake Sumner, NM 88119

$65,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,096 sqft · Other · 43 Days on market

Built 1700 0.73 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy lake living at its finest with great opportunity to own a home in the Sumner Lake community! Situated on a huge . 73-acre lot, property offers beautiful lake views from the back porch, creating the perfect place to relax and take in the peaceful surroundings. Property includes adjoining lot, providing convenient access from both the front and back of the property along with additional space and possibilities. Inside, the home features 2 bedrooms and an abundance of natural light with windows surrounding the home. Enjoy two separate living areas offering flexibility for entertaining, relaxing, or hosting guests. Cozy up on a cool lake evening to charming wood burning fireplace. Additio

Key facts

• Adjoining lot
• Lake views
• Private well

Tags

• LAKE VIEWS
• ADJOINING LOT
• NATURAL LIGHT
• TWO SEPARATE LIVING AREAS
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• PRIVATE WELL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: RV access/parking
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Propane; Sewer connected (septic tank); Water connected (private well)
• Home design: Single-story; Faces southwest; Permanent foundation; Resale property
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Metal siding; Mixed, pitched roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Open patio; Private entrance; Skirting; Shed(s); Cul-de-sac lot; Views

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Propane heating; Wood stove; Evaporative cooling; Window unit(s)
• Interior features: Multiple living areas; Main-level primary suite; Sitting area in primary bedroom; Single-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $360 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($955 rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#58 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Fort Sumner Municipal Schools (rural): math 25% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #18 of 95 in NM (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• De Baca County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1700 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1700 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.73%
• DSCR: 2.06
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.37% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $28,594
• Equity at exit: $26,954

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.98×
• Total profit: $72,381
• Equity at exit: $39,851

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88119

• Home prices YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $955 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $317/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$201
• Net cashflow: $360

Break-even live

Break-even rent $499

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $397	-5% $378	+0% $360	+5% $341	+10% $323
Rent	-10% $284	-5% $322	+0% $360	+5% $398	+10% $435
Rate	-1.0pp $393	-0.5pp $376	base $360	+0.5pp $343	+1.0pp $326

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $65,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $65,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $65,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $65,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $65,000 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $65,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 23 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 22 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $65,000 Active 21 DOM
18. 2026-05-08
    listed $65,000 Active 796-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $317 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $520 · $43/mo
• Expected delta: +$203/yr (+$17/mo · 63.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,457
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$317
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$917
• − Management: −$917
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $3,450
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$828
• After-tax cash flow: $3,490/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Sumner Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501050
• Math proficiency: 25% —
• Reading proficiency: 50% —
• Median HH income: $33,537
• Composite: 33.33/100
• National rank: #10572
• State rank: #18 of 95 in NM

Livability — Lake Sumner

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #13324

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C+ Housing F Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Sumner, NM
• Population (ZIP): 1,467

Population outlook (De Baca County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,568 people
• By 2030: 1,458 · -7.0%
• By 2040: 1,272 · -18.9%
• By 2050: 1,120 · -28.6%
• By 2075: 815 · -48.0%
• By 2100: 511 · -67.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% White 31% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 37% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · De Baca

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.7) · D 23.6% · R 74.3% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.3pp toward R · 2008: -30.4pp · 2024: -50.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.7 2020: R+47.2 2016: R+47.1 2012: R+33.2 2008: R+30.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.37%
• Current HPI: 75.3427
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $65,000 Southwest MLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $317 · -11.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.