5450 Monterey Rd #142

San Jose, CA 95111

$409,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,734 sqft · Built 1998 · Manufactured · Active · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,301/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,145
• Tax + insurance: −$682
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$903
• Net cashflow: $572/mo
• Annual: $6,860/yr
• Cap rate: 7.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.99%
• DSCR: 1.27
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $114,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $409k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $572 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $409k).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($403k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $403k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#68 in CA, #2,559 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Oak Grove Elementary (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #339 of 1,400 in CA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.0%/yr); 65 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,838 units permitted in Santa Clara County in 2024 (1,886 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Clara County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $305k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 1.6% in San Jose — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,301/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($101k/yr) (locally 1808% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.