14774 Goldcone

Magalia, CA 95954

$165,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1981 · Manufactured · Active · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,537/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$157
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $191/mo
• Annual: $2,294/yr
• Cap rate: 7.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.97%
• DSCR: 1.22
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $191 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (6.9% below list).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $154k (6.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,094 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Zoned schools: Cedarwood Elementary (236 students, 76% FRL); Paradise Junior High (164 students, 70% FRL); Paradise Senior High (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #532 of 1,170 statewide, top 48%, 476 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 217 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $165k implies a 450% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.1% in Magalia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.