14774 Goldcone · Magalia, CA 95954

$165,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured · 25 Days on market

Built 1981 0.26 ac lot $172/sqft · 34% above area Est $123k · 34% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

From the moment you arrive, this adorable home feels like a quiet escape. The beautiful pine trees create a scenic backdrop and add to the peaceful atmosphere, giving the property a true sense of calm and character. Inside, the refreshed interior offers a clean and welcoming feel, while the thoughtful 2 bedroom, 2 bath layout supports easy everyday living. The large lot adds valuable outdoor space with plenty of room to enjoy the surroundings, entertain, or simply take in the natural setting. Curl up by the inviting indoor fireplace on cool evenings, or gather around the outdoor fire pit under the trees for a cozy night outside. With its warm character, fresh feel, and picturesque pine tree

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Built 1981
• Listed 25 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community amenities nearby: hiking, foothills, lake, park

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel driveway; RV access/parking and RV potential; Private parking
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Water connected (private water source); Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured house; Single-story; Entry on main level
• Construction: Composition roof; No certified 433-A; No common walls
• Exterior features: Front and rear porches; Porch and deck; Storage building and shed; Fenced yard in good condition; Has view; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Separated eating area; Pots & pan drawers
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: One-level home; Turnkey condition; Main-floor primary bedroom; All bedrooms on main floor; Linen closet/storage; Bathtub; Wood-burning fireplace; Separated eating area; Pots & pan drawers
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $191 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (6.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (6.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.1% in Magalia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,094 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Zoned schools: Cedarwood Elementary (236 students, 76% FRL); Paradise Junior High (164 students, 70% FRL); Paradise Senior High (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #532 of 1,170 statewide, top 48%, 476 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 217 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $165k implies a 450% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,660 (6.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.97%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $123,088
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: 34.05%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14784 Magnolia Dr	0.13mi	2/1.0	950 (-1%)	10mo	$22,000	$23	80
14795 Glenwood	0.42mi	2/2.0	975 (+2%)	19mo	$117,000	$120	62
14794 Glenwood Dr	0.38mi	1/1.0 (-1)	900 (-6%)	10mo	$80,000	$89	54
14717 Wood	0.50mi	2/1.0	864 (-10%)	4mo	$65,000	$75	53
14750 Glenwood Dr	0.38mi	2/1.5	825 (-14%)	9mo	$95,000	$115	49
14807 Wood Dr	0.49mi	2/2.0	1,092 (+14%)	7mo	$125,000	$114	49
14710 Briarwood Dr	0.53mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+10%)	12mo	$160,000	$152	49
6584 Woodward Dr	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,080 (+12%)	10mo	$238,000	$220	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-14,610
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $2,758
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95954

• Home prices YoY: -30.0%
• Active inventory: 217
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,537 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,064/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $191

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,295

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $285	-5% $238	+0% $191	+5% $144	+10% $98
Rent	-10% $70	-5% $130	+0% $191	+5% $252	+10% $313
Rate	-1.0pp $274	-0.5pp $233	base $191	+0.5pp $148	+1.0pp $105

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $165,000 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $165,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   status $165,000 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-05-14
   status Pending Sale 760-char remark
10. 2026-04-28
    listed $165,000 Active 760-char remark
11. 2016-03-23
    soldstatus $30,000
12. 1997-11-14
    soldstatus $24,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,064 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,254 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$190/yr (+$16/mo · 17.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 37 unhealthy d/yr today · 42 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,439
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,064
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,475
• − Management: −$1,475
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$443
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$106
• After-tax cash flow: $2,401/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Magalia

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1094
• US rank: #25434

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Magalia, CA
• Population (ZIP): 8,488

Population outlook (Butte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,527 people
• By 2030: 243,804 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 253,899 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 262,561 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 283,709 · +19.4%
• By 2100: 282,689 · +19.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Russian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butte

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.8% · R 49.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+1.7 2016: R+4.0 2012: R+3.9 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.49%
• Current HPI: 194.8809
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+587.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-05-14 Pending — CRMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $165,000 CRMLS
• 2016-03-23 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 1997-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,064 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.