37-39 E Willow St

Elizabethtown, PA 17022

$575,000D+

24 bd · 8.0 ba · 3,084 sqft · Built 1900 · MultiFamily · Active · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,300/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,015
• Tax + insurance: −$1,025
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,113
• Net cashflow: $147/mo
• Annual: $1,762/yr
• Cap rate: 6.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.59%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $161,000

Investor read

• This is a 2×1bd/1.0ba + 2×2bd/1.0ba units multifamily listed at $575k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $147 ($2k/yr) — positive. Per door: $37/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $530k (7.8% below list).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $530k (7.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#201 in PA, #1,759 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Elizabethtown Area SD (suburban): math 46% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #123 of 539 in PA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Elizabethtown Area Shs (math 67% / reading 24%, grade D-, #183 of 437 statewide, top 43%, 1,249 students, 29% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 202 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,093 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lancaster County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask is 174% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $195k; list at $575k implies a 195% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.1% in Elizabethtown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,300/mo this rent would consume 73% of the median local household income ($87k/yr) (locally 1404% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — Significant wear and tear visible.
• Major: siding — Peeling and chipping paint.
• Major: flooring — Worn and may need replacement.
• Major: interior walls — Paint peeling and signs of wear.
• Major: windows — Old and may need replacement.
• Major: HVAC/mechanicals — No specific details, but likely outdated and in need of inspection.